Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The thread steel futures market oscillated upward, with spot prices rising slightly and trading volume increasing. Output rose slightly, inventory decreased again, and apparent demand increased. With resilient demand in the off-season, low output, and no inventory accumulation, coupled with rising coking coal prices and expected cost increases, the short-term futures market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [1] - Iron ore: The futures price of the main contract decreased. Supply increased, demand decreased slightly, and inventory increased. Affected by recent macro sentiment, and having risen significantly with the black series previously, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [1] - Coking coal: The futures price rose, and the spot market was strong. With positive news in the black industry chain, continuous inventory reduction, and increasing demand from steel mills, the short-term futures market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [1] - Coke: The futures price rose, and the spot price increased. With rising coal prices and increased costs for coke enterprises, but also rising steel prices and increased demand from steel mills, the short-term futures market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [1] - Manganese silicon: The futures price oscillated widely. With limited fundamental support, increasing output, low demand, and relatively stable costs, the short-term market is expected to oscillate widely [3] - Ferrosilicon: The futures price oscillated weakly. With low supply and demand, decreasing inventory, and limited fundamental drivers, the short-term market is expected to oscillate widely [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Steel: The closing price of the thread steel 2510 contract was 3294 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. National thread steel output increased by 2.9 tons week-on-week to 211.96 million tons, social inventory increased by 2.81 tons to 372.97 million tons, factory inventory decreased by 7.43 tons to 165.67 million tons, and apparent demand increased by 10.41 tons to 216.58 million tons [1] - Iron ore: The closing price of the main contract i2509 was 811 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Australian shipments continued to decline, Brazilian shipments increased, and shipments from non-mainstream countries increased significantly. Iron ore shipments globally increased. Newly added 1 blast furnace resumed production, 1 blast furnace was under maintenance, and hot metal output decreased by 0.21 tons to 242.23 million tons week-on-week [1] - Coking coal: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 1198.5 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. The price of prime coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi, increased by 20 yuan to 1400 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was strong, with prices rising [1] - Coke: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1735 yuan/ton, up 27.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. The spot price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port increased by 40 yuan to 1420 yuan/ton. Coke enterprises faced increased costs and were in a state of overall loss, but steel prices rose, boosting the confidence of coke enterprises to raise prices [1] - Manganese silicon: The main contract was reported at 5948 yuan/ton, down 0.13% month-on-month, with a decrease in positions. The spot market price of 6517 manganese silicon in various regions was about 5650 - 5940 yuan/ton, with a decrease in Inner Mongolia [3] - Ferrosilicon: The main contract was reported at 5754 yuan/ton, down 1.54% month-on-month, with a decrease in positions. The aggregated price of 72 ferrosilicon in various regions was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton, with a decrease in Ningxia [3] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various varieties showed different changes. For example, the 10 - 1 spread of thread steel was -59.0, down 9.0; the basis of the 10 contract was 86.0, down 20.0; the spot price in Shanghai was 3380.0, unchanged [4] 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Main Contract Prices: Included price trend charts of main contracts such as thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16] - 3.2 Main Contract Basis: Included basis trend charts of main contracts such as thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [19][20][23][25] - 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: Included spread trend charts of inter - period contracts such as thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [28][30][31][35][37][38][40] - 3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads: Included spread trend charts of inter - variety contracts such as the hot-rolled coil - thread steel spread, thread steel - iron ore ratio, thread steel - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and manganese silicon - ferrosilicon spread [43][45][47] - 3.5 Thread Steel Profits: Included profit trend charts of thread steel such as the main contract's on - screen profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][53]
黑色商品日报-20250725
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-07-25 06:48