化工日报：轮胎厂开工率环比继续回升-20250725

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU neutral, NR neutral, BR neutral [4][5] Core Viewpoints - In the context of not-high valuation, rubber prices have shown a continuous rebound pattern driven by a warm market atmosphere, mainly following the macro logic. The price of natural rubber raw materials may continue to rise, and the supply rebound pressure is expected to be limited. The downstream demand remains stable, and it is expected that rubber prices will continue the rebound trend, with the focus on the actual improvement of demand later. The supply of BR is showing a rebound trend, and its own supply-demand pattern is weak. The price of synthetic rubber is lower than that of natural rubber, and the downstream replacement demand is still supported. The focus is on the price change of upstream butadiene raw materials later [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,245 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 13,120 yuan/ton, up 345 yuan/ton. Spot: The Shanghai market price of Yunnan-produced whole latex was 15,200 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; the Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton; the Thai 20 standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton; the Indonesian 20 standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,780 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton; the ex-factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 463,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.21% and a year-on-year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 26.47%. In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 751,700 tons, an increase of 11.8% compared with 672,600 tons in the same period in 2024. In June, the export volume increased by 36.9% year-on-year and 13.3% month-on-month. In June this year, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 18.1% and a month-on-month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of this year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 24, 2025, the RU basis was -45 yuan/ton (+10), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 345 yuan/ton (-60), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was -5,115 yuan/ton (+547.16), the NR basis was 86.00 yuan/ton (-65.00); the whole latex was 15,200 yuan/ton (+250), the mixed rubber was 14,900 yuan/ton (+300), the 3L spot was 15,050 yuan/ton (+200). The STR20 was quoted at 1,850 US dollars/ton (+40), the spread between the whole latex and the 3L was 150 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between the mixed rubber and the styrene-butadiene rubber was 2,600 yuan/ton (+100). - Raw materials: The Thai smoked sheet was 65.59 Thai baht/kg (-0.78), the Thai latex was 55.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), the Thai cup lump was 50.00 Thai baht/kg (+0.05), the difference between the Thai latex and the cup lump was 5.30 Thai baht/kg (-0.05). - Operating rate: The operating rate of all-steel tires was 62.23% (+0.25%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tires was 70.06% (+1.93%). - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,289,100 tons (-6,053.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 634,586 tons (-1,797), the RU futures inventory was 186,640 tons (-2,050), and the NR futures inventory was 36,691 tons (-303) [3] BR - Spot and spreads: On July 24, 2025, the BR basis was -485 yuan/ton (-310), the ex-factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 9,700 yuan/ton (+100), the BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was quoted at 12,200 yuan/ton (+200), the BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was quoted at 11,900 yuan/ton (+150), the private BR in Shandong was 11,700 yuan/ton (+50), the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was -862 yuan/ton (+66). - Operating rate: The operating rate of high-cis BR was 67.63% (+3.31%). - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 7,470 tons (+870), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 24,850 tons (-800) [3] Strategy - RU is neutral, and NR is neutral. Recently, rubber mainly follows the macro logic. Against the background of not-high valuation, the price shows a continuous rebound pattern driven by the warm market atmosphere. BR is neutral. Recently, the BR units of Jinzhou Petrochemical and Heze Kexin have restarted, and Yanshan Petrochemical is also expected to have restarted this week. The supply shows a month-on-month rebound trend [4][5]