Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC market rebounded on Friday with the 08 contract surging due to Maersk's announced PSS price increase of $500 for long - term contracts in August and ONE's online quote increase of $300. However, the market sentiment fluctuated as ONE's offline August early - period list price remained the same as late - July and CML cut prices at the end of July. The 10 contract declined on Monday afternoon, and the market dropped on Tuesday afternoon as MSK's August first - week freight rate was lower than the current selling price. On Wednesday, it was affected by Maersk's overtime ship opening at $2700. Overall, it rebounded on Thursday afternoon due to the positive commodity market, but some airlines continued to cut prices for late - July and early - August. It is expected that the European line freight rate will peak at the end of July, with a low possibility of price hikes in August, and even if there are price hikes, the success rate will be low. The freight rate is about to enter an arc - top trend, and the accelerated decline is expected at the end of August [7]. - The strategy is to short the 10 contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Freight Index - Current Values: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1647, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1304, SCFI - US West is 2142, SCFIS - US West is 1301, SCFI - US East is 3612, SCFI - Northwest Europe is 2079, SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 2400, and SCFI - Mediterranean is 2528 [5]. - Previous Values: SCFI was 1733, CCFI was 1314, SCFI - US West was 2194, SCFIS - US West was 1266, SCFI - US East was 4172, SCFI - Northwest Europe was 2099, SCFIS - Northwest Europe was 2421, and SCFI - Mediterranean was 2667 [5]. - Percentage Changes: SCFI decreased by 4.98%, CCFI decreased by 0.78%, SCFI - US West decreased by 2.37%, SCFIS - US West increased by 2.76%, SCFI - US East decreased by 13.42%, SCFI - Northwest Europe decreased by 0.95%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 0.87%, and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 5.21% [5]. 3.2 Contracts - Current Values: EC2506 is 1506.9, EC2508 is 2244.9, EC2510 is 1583.9, EC2512 is 1779.9, EC2602 is 1562.3, and EC2604 is 1382.0 [5]. - Previous Values: EC2506 was 1468.8, EC2508 was 2239.7, EC2510 was 1537.0, EC2512 was 1701.8, EC2602 was 1477.3, and EC2604 was 1324.0 [5]. - Percentage Changes: EC2506 increased by 2.59%, EC2508 increased by 0.23%, EC2510 increased by 3.05%, EC2512 increased by 4.59%, EC2602 increased by 5.75%, and EC2604 increased by 4.38% [5]. 3.3 Positions - Current Values: EC2606 position is 841, EC2508 position is 9684, EC2410 position is 50586, EC2412 position is 8741, EC2602 position is 4327, and EC2604 position is 5513 [5]. - Previous Values: EC2606 position was 807, EC2508 position was 11039, EC2410 position was 50131, EC2412 position was 8446, EC2602 position was 4094, and EC2604 position was 5800 [5]. - Change Values: EC2606 increased by 34, EC2508 decreased by 1355, EC2410 increased by 455, EC2412 increased by 295, EC2602 increased by 233, and EC2604 decreased by 287 [5]. 3.4 Calendar Spreads - Current Values: The 10 - 12 spread is 661.0, the 12 - 2 spread is - 196.0, and the 12 - 4 spread is 397.9 [5]. - Previous Values: The 10 - 12 spread was 702.7, the 12 - 2 spread was - 164.8, and the 12 - 4 spread was 377.8 [5]. - Change Values: The 10 - 12 spread decreased by 41.7, the 12 - 2 spread decreased by 31.2, and the 12 - 4 spread increased by 20.1 [5].
航运衍生品数据日报-20250725
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-07-25 07:05