阿塞拜疆原油出现有机氯污染，乌拉尔装船因检查延迟

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: The oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - There have been continuous short - term disturbances in crude oil supply recently. The loading of Russian Urals crude has been delayed due to additional inspection procedures, and Azerbaijani crude has an organic chloride pollution problem. However, the crude oil supply problems in Latin America have eased, and the supply in Venezuela may increase [2] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 78 cents to $66.03 per barrel, a 1.2% increase. The price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose 67 cents to $69.18 per barrel, a 0.98% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 0.56% at 507 yuan per barrel [1] - Russia is expected to impose a gasoline export ban on fuel producers in a few days [2] - The Russian Federal Security Service has started issuing permits to foreign oil tankers to enter Black Sea ports, paving the way for the resumption of Kazakhstan's oil exports [2] - Iranian President Pezeshkiyan is not optimistic about the prospect of a cease - fire with Israel and Iran is prepared for any situation [2] - Iran's deputy foreign minister said that to resume nuclear negotiations with the US, it is necessary to build mutual trust, recognize Tehran's nuclear rights, and ensure non - aggression against Iran [2] - As of the week ending July 23, Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose 314,000 barrels to a two - week high of 23.699 million barrels [2] Investment Logic - The loading of Russian Urals crude has been delayed due to additional inspection procedures. Since July 21, ships bound for Russia from foreign ports must obtain prior approval from the Federal Security Service. Underwater inspections may lead to more serious delays in Urals exports from the Baltic Sea [2] - Azerbaijani crude has an organic chloride pollution problem, which may affect the loading of Azeri crude [2] - The crude oil supply problems in Latin America have eased. Two crude oil pipelines in Ecuador (OCP and STOE) will restart soon, and crude oil transportation will resume. Trump is considering restoring Chevron's operating license in Venezuela, which will help increase Venezuelan crude oil supply [2] Strategy - Short - term: The oil price will fluctuate within a range. Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Risk - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Iranian oil, and there are macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [3]