国债期货日报：股债跷跷板明显，国债期货全线收跌-20250725

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The stock - bond seesaw is obvious, and treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Driven by the strong stock market, the risk appetite has recovered, suppressing the bond market. Meanwhile, the delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the increase in global trade uncertainty have added uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable - growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][2] - For trading strategies, the 2509 contract is neutral in the unilateral trading; pay attention to the widening of the basis in arbitrage; and in hedging, short - position holders can moderately hedge with far - month contracts as there is medium - term adjustment pressure [3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price Indicators: China's CPI monthly环比 is - 0.10% and同比 is 0.10%; China's PPI monthly环比 is - 0.40% and同比 is - 3.60% [8] - Monthly Economic Indicators: Social financing scale is 430.22 trillion yuan, with a环比 increase of 4.06 trillion yuan and a环比 change rate of + 0.95%; M2同比 is 8.30%, with a环比 increase of 0.40% and a环比 change rate of + 5.06%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with a环比 increase of 0.20% and a环比 change rate of + 0.40% [8] - Daily Economic Indicators: The US dollar index is 97.51, with a环比 increase of 0.28 and a环比 change rate of + 0.29%; The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1462, with a环比 decrease of 0.015 and a环比 change rate of - 0.21%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.55, with a环比 increase of 0.08 and a环比 change rate of + 5.60%; DR007 is 1.58, with a环比 increase of 0.09 and a环比 change rate of + 6.29%; R007 is 1.68, with a环比 increase of 0.04 and a环比 change rate of + 2.35%; The 3 - month yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) is 1.60, with a环比 increase of 0.04 and a环比 change rate of + 2.45%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a环比 increase of 0.00 and a环比 change rate of + 2.45% [8] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the maturity yield trend of treasury bonds of each term, the valuation change of treasury bonds of each term in the recent day, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position - holding ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position - holding ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the long - short position - holding ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the trading - to - position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [11][14][17][20][22][25] 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - Relevant figures include the interest - rate corridor, central bank's open - market operations, bond - lending turnover and the total position - holding volume of treasury bond futures, Shibor interest - rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local bonds [27][29][34][36] 4. Spread Overview - Relevant figures include the inter - term spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the term spread of spot bonds and the inter - variety spread of futures (4TS - T), (2TS - TF), (2TF - T), (3T - TL), and the spread between spot bond yield and futures price (2TS - 3TF + T) [40][42][43][46] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [45][48][55] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [54][57] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [62][65] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [69][72][75]