化工日报：周内小幅累库，关注宏观情绪变动-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Strong due to the concentrated release of macro - policies; Medium - term: Neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4485 yuan/ton (+49 yuan/ton, +1.10% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4529 yuan/ton (+32 yuan/ton, +0.71% compared to the previous trading day). The East China spot basis was 58 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - The news of the upcoming stable growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals boosted the market, but the proportion of obsolete EG production capacity over 20 years old is only 6.6%, and most are in a shutdown or low - load operation state, with a relatively limited impact. The cost of coal has increased due to the production inspection notice [1] - Ethylene - made EG production profit was - 44 dollars/ton (+1 dollar/ton month - on - month), and coal - made syngas - made EG production profit was 97 yuan/ton (+4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data, MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 53.3 tons (-2.0 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 47.5 tons (-1.9 tons month - on - month). The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 15.7 tons, with concentrated arrivals, and the visible inventory is expected to moderately rebound at the beginning of next week [2] - In terms of supply, the domestic synthetic gas - made load has returned to a high level, with more unplanned load reductions in non - coal aspects and limited room for further improvement. Overseas supply recovery is not as expected. In terms of demand, terminal inventory is high in the off - season, and the demand expectation is weak, but the actual decline space may be limited. The supply - demand structure in July is still good, but the pressure of foreign vessel arrivals will increase moderately in late July [2] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4485 yuan/ton (+49 yuan/ton, +1.10% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4529 yuan/ton (+32 yuan/ton, +0.71% compared to the previous trading day). The East China spot basis was 58 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - Ethylene - made EG production profit was - 44 dollars/ton (+1 dollar/ton month - on - month), and coal - made syngas - made EG production profit was 97 yuan/ton (+4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - The domestic synthetic gas - made load has returned to a high level, with more unplanned load reductions in non - coal aspects and limited room for further improvement [2] 3.3 International Spread - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - In the off - season, terminal inventory is high, and the demand expectation is weak. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of filament maintenance, and the actual decline space may be limited [2] 3.5 Inventory Data - According to CCF data, MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 53.3 tons (-2.0 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 47.5 tons (-1.9 tons month - on - month). The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 15.7 tons, with concentrated arrivals, and the visible inventory is expected to moderately rebound at the beginning of next week [2]