Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 24, the main contract of new lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit during intraday trading. The spot market trading was sluggish, and the basis changed from premium to discount. The price of spodumene concentrate and mica increased on the cost - end. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased on the supply - side. In June, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased, while that of lithium cobaltate and lithium manganate decreased. Last week, the production of power batteries decreased. In terms of terminal demand, in June, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production of energy - storage batteries increased in June. The registered warehouse receipts were 11,654 (+900) tons, and the social inventory increased. Smelters reduced inventory, while downstream and other sectors were tight. Overall, the "anti - involution" sentiment continued, and there was a large divergence between spot buyers and sellers. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data 3.1 Futures Market Data - Closing Prices: On July 24, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month contract, continuous - one contract, continuous - two contract, and continuous - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 76,500.00 yuan/ton, 76,680.00 yuan/ton, 75,000.00 yuan/ton, and 75,000.00 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 7,180.00 yuan/ton, 7,300.00 yuan/ton, 6,380.00 yuan/ton, and 6,380.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 1,770,283.00 lots (+436,124.00), and the open interest was 436,727.00 lots (+74,673.00) [2]. - Inventory: The inventory was 11,654.00 tons (+900.00 tons) [2]. - Spreads: The spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 180.00 yuan/ton (-120.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day), the spread between the continuous - one and continuous - two contracts was 1,680.00 yuan/ton (+920.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day), and the spread between the continuous - two and continuous - three contracts was 0.00 yuan/ton [2]. - Basis: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 6,130.00 yuan/ton (-7,200.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [2]. 3.2 Raw Material Prices - Lithium Spodumene Concentrate: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 764.00 US dollars/ton (+14.00 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day) [2]. - Lithium Mica: The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,080.00 yuan/ton (+40.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day), and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,655.00 yuan/ton (+50.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [2]. 3.3 Lithium Product Prices - Lithium Carbonate: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 70,550.00 yuan/ton (+100.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 68,900.00 yuan/ton (+100.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [2]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 8.20 US dollars/kg (unchanged compared to the previous day). The average price of battery - grade coarse - particle lithium hydroxide (domestic) was 60,520.00 yuan/ton (+700.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day), and the average price of battery - grade fine - powder lithium hydroxide (domestic) was 65,670.00 yuan/ton (+700.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [2]. - Other Lithium Products: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%, domestic) was 21,500.00 yuan/ton (+500.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day). The prices of various ternary precursors and materials, as well as lithium iron phosphate, showed different degrees of increase [2]. 3.4 Cobalt Product Prices - Cobalt Products: The average price of electrolytic cobalt (≥99.8%, domestic) was 245,500.00 yuan/ton (+500.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day), the average price of cobalt sulfate (≥20.5%, domestic) was 51,000.00 yuan/ton (+25.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day), and the average price of tricobalt tetroxide (≥72.8%, domestic) was 208,650.00 yuan/ton (unchanged compared to the previous day) [2]. 3.5 Inventory Data - SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The inventory of smelters was 55,385 tons (-2,654 tons compared to the previous week), the inventory of downstream was 42,815 tons (+1,544 tons compared to the previous week), and the total inventory was 143,170 tons (+550 tons compared to the previous week) [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Price Law Amendment: The draft amendment to the price law is open for public consultation to regulate the market price order and address "involution - style" competition [2]. - Argentina Lithium Project: On July 24, Argentina's economic minister Luis Caputo said that the country had approved Galan Lithium's 217 - million - US - dollar lithium project in Catamarca Province to enter the new incentive program RIGI. The total planned expenditure under this system has reached 12.8 billion US dollars [2].
碳酸锂日评20250725:情绪扩大扰动-20250725
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-25 06:57