盘面镍价小幅上涨，现货升贴水持稳

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, despite the lack of improvement in the nickel fundamentals, due to the long - term decline in nickel prices and the recent shift in market macro - sentiment, a situation of weak reality and strong expectation has formed. It is expected that nickel prices will test the upper pressure in the near future [3]. - For the stainless - steel market, although there is no major change in the stainless - steel fundamentals, considering the long - term decline in stainless - steel prices and the recent shift in market macro - sentiment, a weak reality and strong expectation situation has emerged. It is predicted that stainless - steel prices will test the upper pressure in the near future [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Analysis - Price and Trading Volume: On July 24, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2509 opened at 123,810 yuan/ton and closed at 124,360 yuan/ton, a 0.66% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 162,621 lots, and the open interest was 98,904 lots [1]. - Market Trend: The night session of the Shanghai nickel main contract quickly rose and then fell back and consolidated. The day session continued to rise slightly and then oscillated and fell, with a slight rebound in the afternoon, closing with a positive line. The trading volume and open interest increased compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Spot Market: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation was raised by about 600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream brand quotations in the market all increased accordingly. The refined nickel spot premium mostly remained stable. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed, and the trading volume was average. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 1,950 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,971 tons, and LME nickel inventory was 204,456 tons, a decrease of 1,416 tons [2]. Nickel Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly operate within a range. - Other Strategies: No recommendations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [3]. Stainless - Steel Market Analysis - Price and Trading Volume: On July 24, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2509 opened at 12,945 yuan/ton and closed at 12,935 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 144,303 lots, and the open interest was 120,333 lots [3]. - Market Trend: The night session of the stainless - steel main contract oscillated horizontally after opening, and the day session continued to oscillate, with a slight rise near the close in the afternoon, closing with a doji. The trading volume decreased compared to the previous trading day, while the open interest increased [3]. - Supply - Side Situation: In the Philippines, nickel ore resources will be sold in August, and a mine has offered a 1.3% FOB31 quotation, showing a month - on - month decline. In Indonesia, the weather has improved slightly, the nickel ore mining efficiency has increased, and the nickel ore market has weakened. The domestic trade benchmark price in July (Phase II) decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, basically flat month - on - month. There was an obvious spread in the domestic trade premium, with transactions at + 23 - 28, but + 24 remained the mainstream premium. Recently, a nickel - iron plant in Indonesia had concentrated transactions at 920 - 922 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hold), and the nickel - iron negotiation range has moved up, with nickel - iron prices running steadily and slightly stronger [3]. - Spot Market: The spot trading became lighter due to the oscillation of the disk today, and the trading volume was average. The inventory decreased significantly this week, and the downstream replenishment was over. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 12,900 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 65 - 265 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 908.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Stainless - Steel Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - Other Strategies: No recommendations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [4].