煤炭系上涨氛围带动甲醇盘面上涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The recent theme in the chemical sector is the rectification expectation of methanol plants in operation for over 20 years, with the proportion of obsolete methanol plant capacity in China at 5%. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments [3]. - The strong performance of coking coal has driven up the methanol futures price in the coal - related sector, and the rebound in thermal coal prices has also increased the cost of methanol production [3]. - The decline in port inventories this week exceeded expectations due to slow unloading rates. However, high overseas operating rates mean significant future arrival pressure, and some MTO plant maintenance plans have not been fulfilled. Attention should be paid to the implementation progress of production cuts in late July [3]. - In the inland region, coal - based methanol plants are undergoing concentrated maintenance, resulting in short - term low operating rates, which will gradually recover by the end of the month. Traditional downstream industries show some resilience, and inland demand remains strong, with inland plant inventories decreasing again. The inland market is stronger than the port market [3]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple figures show the basis between methanol spot prices in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][11][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [26][31][36] III. Methanol Operation & Inventory - Figures present the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of Chinese methanol plants (including integrated plants) [37][38][40] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [42][48][51] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [52][60][61]