Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. India is expected to further increase its palm oil imports in the second half of the year, and Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to reach 17 million tons in 2025, providing some support for palm oil, resulting in a slightly stronger fluctuation in oil prices [3] Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday's closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 9,104 yuan/ton, a change of +110 yuan or +1.22% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,166 yuan/ton, a change of +92 yuan or +1.14%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,492 yuan/ton, a change of +36 yuan or +0.38% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,040 yuan/ton, a change of -60 yuan or -0.66%, with a spot basis of P09 + -64 yuan, a change of -170 yuan; the spot price of grade one soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,240 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan/ton or +0.24%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 74 yuan, a change of -72 yuan; the spot price of grade four rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,590 yuan/ton, a change of +30 yuan or +0.31%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 98 yuan, a change of -6 yuan [1] Recent Market Consultation Summary India's Palm Oil Imports - The president of the Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) said that due to rising festival demand and falling prices, India's palm oil imports may increase in the second half of this year. In the 2024/25 fiscal year ending in October, total edible oil imports are expected to remain at 16 million tons, including about 9 million tons of palm oil, 4.5 million tons of soybean oil, and about 3.5 million tons of sunflower oil [2] Malaysia's Palm Oil Production and Exports - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) expects Malaysia's crude palm oil production to reach 19.5 million tons in 2025, up from 19.3 million tons last year, and palm oil exports to reach 17 million tons, up from 16.9 million tons last year [2] US Soybean and Soybean Oil Exports - In the 2024/25 fiscal year, US net soybean export sales were 160,900 tons, down 41% from the previous week and 59% from the average of the previous four weeks; in the 2025/26 fiscal year, net sales were 238,800 tons, and export shipments were 360,700 tons, up 31% from the previous week and 28% from the average of the previous four weeks. In the 2024/25 fiscal year, US net soybean oil export sales were -600 tons, down significantly from the previous week and the average of the previous four weeks; in the 2025/26 fiscal year, net export sales were 2,000 tons. US soybean oil export shipments were 3,500 tons, down 22% from the previous week and 33% from the average of the previous four weeks [2] US Drought Report - As of the week ending July 22, about 8% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, up from 7% the previous week and 4% the same period last year; about 9% of US corn planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and up from 4% the same period last year; about 3% of US cotton planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and down from 13% the same period last year [2] Figures - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, production, sales, and inventory of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, with data sources from Steel Union Data and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [5]
印度棕榈油进口预期增加，油脂盘面震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-25 07:14