Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish - Alumina: Cautiously bearish - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, the seasonal off - season is obvious with falling downstream开工率 and production, and potential inventory accumulation. Long - term, supply limitation and stable consumption growth are the main logic, and the long - term outlook remains optimistic despite short - term price fluctuations [3]. - Alumina supply is in a slight surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating. Spot prices are short - term strong, but long - term surplus is expected. Cost of bauxite is under pressure, and there are still factors in the warehouse receipt game [4][5]. - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, with prices following aluminum prices. There is support from the cost side, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6]. Summary by Related Content Key Data Aluminum - Spot: On July 24, 2025, Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20720 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; Zhongyuan A00 aluminum price was 20520 yuan/ton; Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20710 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures: On July 24, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20780 yuan/ton, closed at 20760 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton or - 0.41% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 145349 lots and a position of 309943 lots [1]. - Inventory: As of July 24, 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 510,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory was 448,100 tons, up 3300 tons from the previous day [1]. Alumina - Spot: On July 24, 2025, SMM alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, and Guangxi were 3240 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. - Futures: On July 24, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3361 yuan/ton, closed at 3427 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.23% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 786570 lots and a position of 189037 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Price: On July 23, 2025, Baotai's purchase prices of civil and mechanical primary aluminum were 15300 yuan/ton and 15500 yuan/ton respectively, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; ADC12 Baotai's quote was 19700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 43,200 tons, up 6000 tons week - on - week; the in - factory inventory was 63,600 tons, down 300 tons week - on - week; the total inventory was 106,800 tons, up 5700 tons week - on - week [2]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The seasonal off - season is evident, with falling downstream开工率, production, and processing fees facing losses. Social inventory shows a slight accumulation trend, but the long - term logic is supply limitation and stable consumption growth. Short - term price increase lacks fundamental support, but the long - term outlook is optimistic [3]. Alumina - Supply is in a slight surplus, with accelerating inventory accumulation. Spot prices are short - term strong. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and there are still factors in the warehouse receipt game. Long - term surplus is expected [4][5]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the consumption off - season, with prices following aluminum prices. The supply of scrap and primary aluminum is tight, and there is support from the cost side. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities for the 11 - contract [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution [7]. - Arbitrage: Long - short arbitrage in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 short AL11 [7]
新能源及有色金属日报:氧化铝价格博弈因素依旧较多-20250725
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-25 07:22