现货价格下跌，豆粕偏弱震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the bean meal market, the new - season US soybeans are expected to have a good harvest despite a decrease in the sown area due to high yields. In China, the oil mills are in a state of inventory accumulation, while the breeding industry is in a seasonal consumption off - peak. The overall supply is relatively loose, and the spot price remains stable. However, the bean meal futures price rose last week under the influence of macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and the growth of new - season US soybeans [2] - For the corn market, the trade inventory in China's main production areas has decreased after a wave of concentrated grain sales, and the available corn in the market has reduced. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and purchase on demand, and deep - processing enterprises also adjust their quotations slightly. The impact of import corn auction on prices has weakened [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2509 contract was 3025 yuan/ton yesterday, down 70 yuan/ton or 2.26% from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2682 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton or 2.76% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 2930 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2830 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2850 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2630 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: Brazil's National Grain Exporters Association expects the soybean export volume in July 2025 to be 12.11 million tons, lower than the previous estimate and June's export volume but up 26% year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - The weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is favorable, and the new - season US soybeans are expected to have a good harvest. In China, the supply is loose, and the spot price is stable. The bean meal futures price was affected by macro - sentiment last week. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and the growth of new - season US soybeans [2] Strategy - The strategy for the bean meal market is to be cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2318 yuan/ton yesterday, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.13% from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2669 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton or 0.22% from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - Market Information: From July 1st to 20th, Russia's corn export volume was 273,000 tons, up 13% year - on - year. The number of export destinations decreased from 10 to 3, with Iran and Turkey as the main buyers [3] Market Analysis - In China, the trade inventory in the main production areas has decreased, and the available corn in the market has reduced. Feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises purchase on demand, and the impact of import corn auctions on prices has weakened [4] Strategy - The strategy for the corn market is to be cautiously bearish [5]