PA联盟运价下修至3100美元/FEU,现货价格顶部大概率已现
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-25 07:22
- Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the spot price of PA Alliance freight rates has likely emerged, with the rate revised down to $3,100 per FEU [1][4] - The August contract experiences high - level fluctuations, and the top of the freight rate has likely appeared. The delivery settlement price of the August contract may be around 2,200 points [4] - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the downward slope of the freight rate [5] - The December contract follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen [7] - The year 2025 is a major year for container ship deliveries [8] - The strategy includes a sideways movement for the main contract, a long - 12 and short - 10 arbitrage strategy, and shorting the October contract on rallies [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of July 24, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 79,692.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 81,678.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1,562.30, 1,382.00, 1,506.90, 2,244.90, 1,583.90, and 1,779.90 respectively [7] II. Spot Price - Online quotes from various shipping companies for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route show different price levels and trends. For example, Maersk's Week 31 price is 1907/3214, and Week 32 is 1815/3050 [1] - On July 18, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $2,079.00 per TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was $2,142.00 per FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was $3,612.00 per FEU. On July 21, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2,400.50 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1,301.81 points [7] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From July to September 2025, the weekly average capacity on the China - European base port route shows different levels. August has 3 blank sailings from the OA Alliance, and there are 2 TBNs in August and 4 in September. Maersk will add two additional ships in Week 32 and Week 34 [3] - As of July 20, 2025, 151 container ships with a total capacity of 1.204 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. Among them, 47 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 705,300 TEU and 7 ships above 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU have been delivered [8] IV. Supply Chain - There is geopolitical influence. The US Middle East envoy stated that the US will withdraw from the Doha cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas due to Hamas' lack of sincerity [2] - Information on ship congestion ratios, speeds of different - sized ships, and the number of container ships passing through major canals such as the Suez, Cape of Good Hope, and Panama is presented in the figures, although specific data in the text analysis is not elaborated [57][67][75] V. Demand and European Economy - Figures show data related to port container throughput, EU 27 industrial production index, EU 27 imports from China, euro - zone consumer confidence index, EU 27 retail sales year - on - year, and China's export volume to the EU and total export volume, but specific data analysis is not provided in the text [76][77][88]