Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed flat at 2,879 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.59% at 3,588 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices are oscillating, providing limited short-term direction for fuel oil. The FU and LU markets are narrowly fluctuating, and face the pressure of a looser oil market balance sheet and a downward cost center in the medium term [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil market currently lacks fundamental highlights. The market structure has been continuously adjusted, and the crack spread has significantly declined from its high. The spot supply is relatively abundant, and the inventory level is high. Although the power generation demand is in the peak season and Egypt's procurement is strong, Saudi Arabia's use of fuel oil in power plants has decreased year-on-year due to increased crude oil production, limiting the growth space of power generation terminal demand. However, the structural positive factors for high-sulfur fuel oil have not completely disappeared. If the crack spread is fully adjusted to attract a significant recovery in refinery demand, opportunities for the market structure to strengthen again can be observed [1]. - The fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil have marginally loosened recently. The arrival of Brazilian cargoes has increased, and Kuwait's exports have resumed. There are no obvious contradictions in the Asia-Pacific spot market. In the medium term, the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, and the carbon neutrality trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, suppressing the market outlook [1]. Strategy Summary - High-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to oscillate [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to oscillate [2]. - Cross-variety: Positions in shorting the FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) taken earlier can be appropriately closed for profit [2]. - Cross-period: FU reverse spread positions taken earlier can be gradually closed for profit [2]. - Spot-futures: No strategy provided [2]. - Options: No strategy provided [2]. Chart Information - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contracts, near-month spreads, and various fuel oil futures contract closing prices, index closing prices, and trading volumes [3][4][7][11][13][16][24][25][28][29].
盘面窄幅震荡,市场短期驱动有限
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-25 07:15