纯苯苯乙烯日报：下游开工小幅回升-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report The recent theme in the chemical sector is the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years. The capacities of pure benzene and styrene plants in operation for over 20 years account for 16% and 6%, respectively. The BZ futures still maintain a certain premium. There is still pressure on pure benzene port inventory during the same period. The short - term demand for BZ downstream is acceptable. Attention should be paid to whether the styrene and CPL operations can remain strong. In terms of supply, there is still pressure on South Korea's exports to China, and domestic production operations are still at a high level. The processing fee for pure benzene continues to show weak consolidation. For styrene, port inventory is rising rapidly. In terms of supply, domestic EB operations are still at a relatively high level. In terms of demand, the operations of the three major hard plastics have rebounded, the inventory pressure of PS continues to ease, and ABS still has inventory pressure [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 246 yuan/ton (- 40), and the East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread is - 75 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton). The styrene main contract basis is 10 yuan/ton (- 43 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 177 dollars/ton (- 8 dollars/ton), pure benzene FOB South Korea processing fee is 163 dollars/ton (- 6 dollars/ton), and the pure benzene US - South Korea spread is 119.9 dollars/ton (+ 2.0 dollars/ton). The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 44 yuan/ton (+ 13 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1] 3.3 Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 17.10 million tons (+ 0.70 million tons). Styrene East China port inventory is 150,700 tons (+ 12,200 tons), and styrene East China commercial inventory is 56,200 tons (+ 11,200 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage. The operating rate of pure benzene downstream products varies: caprolactam operating rate is 90.90% (- 0.83%), phenol operating rate is 78.00% (- 3.00%), aniline operating rate is 73.66% (+ 0.77%), and adipic acid operating rate is 64.80% (+ 0.00%). The styrene operating rate is 78.8% (+ 0.5%) [1] 3.4 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - Among styrene downstream hard plastics, EPS production profit is 175 yuan/ton (+ 0 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 126 yuan/ton (- 50 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is 216 yuan/ton (- 9 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 55.21% (+ 2.02%), PS operating rate is 51.60% (+ 1.00%), and ABS operating rate is 66.82% (+ 0.92%), with downstream operations at a seasonal low [2] 3.5 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - The production profits of pure benzene downstream products are as follows: caprolactam production profit is - 1875 yuan/ton (+ 15), phenol - acetone production profit is - 693 yuan/ton (+ 0), aniline production profit is - 113 yuan/ton (- 16), and adipic acid production profit is - 1482 yuan/ton (+ 9) [1] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see for pure benzene; wait and see for styrene - Basis and inter - period: For near - month BZ paper goods - distant BZ2603 futures, do reverse arbitrage when the price is high; do reverse arbitrage for EB2509 - 2510 inter - period - Cross - variety: Shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [4]