Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][7][10] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a supply - loose pattern. The US cotton balance sheet is hard to improve significantly, and the price will fluctuate with the macro - market. In China, the commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the supply is expected to be tight before the new cotton is on the market. However, the strong expectation of a new cotton harvest and weak terminal demand restrict the upward space of cotton prices. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] - For sugar, the global sugar market is expected to have an increased production in the new season, which restricts the rebound of the raw sugar price. In China, the domestic sugar spot price is firm due to fast sales, but the high import profit and expected increase in imports put pressure on the Zhengzhou sugar price [6] - For pulp, the short - term anti - involution policy boosts the market sentiment, and the pulp price rebounds. The supply pressure remains in the second half of the year due to high imports and domestic capacity expansion, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. The improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 14,160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.14%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,431 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,563 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. From 7.11 - 7.17, the net signing of US 2024/25 annual upland cotton was - 7416 tons, and the shipment was 41,912 tons, up 18% from the previous week. The net signing of this year's Pima cotton was 1247 tons, and the shipment was 1134 tons, down 37% from the previous week. New - year upland cotton signing was 30,073 tons, and new - year Pima cotton signing was 3946 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply - side weather narrative is insufficient this year, and the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be supply - loose. The US cotton balance sheet is hard to improve, and the price will fluctuate with the macro - market. Domestically, the fast inventory reduction, delayed quota issuance, and un - priced contracts drive the Zhengzhou cotton price up. But the strong new cotton harvest expectation, weak terminal demand, and inventory accumulation restrict the upward space. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short - term, the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract may continue to rise due to capital influence. In the long - term, the sufficient global supply and potential policies limit the upward space of the 01 contract [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5866 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Russia, some areas are affected by drought, with 39% and 59% of beet - planting areas in Krasnodar and Rostov affected respectively [4] Market Analysis - The raw sugar price rebound is restricted by the expected global production increase. The domestic sugar spot price is firm, but the high import profit and expected import increase put pressure on the Zhengzhou sugar price [6] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short - term, the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended. In the long - term, the sugar price is in a downward cycle, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5456 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton (+0.78%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5360 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price was mostly stable, with some varieties having weak high - price transactions [8] Market Analysis - The short - term anti - involution policy boosts the market sentiment, and the low - priced pulp rebounds. In terms of supply, the wood pulp imports increased in the first half of 2025, and domestic capacity expansion is expected to reduce imports in the second half. But the slow de - stocking and high port inventory mean supply pressure remains. In terms of demand, the pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is also weak due to the off - season [9] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction is hard to ease, and the pulp price may stay at the bottom. Short - selling on rallies after the macro - stimulus ends is recommended [10]
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Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-25 07:27