石化化工反内卷稳增长系列之七：碳纤维：当前行业处周期底部，需求持续向好景气度有望改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the carbon fiber industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The carbon fiber industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with demand expected to improve, leading to a potential increase in industry prosperity [4] - Domestic carbon fiber prices have been declining since 2022, but are now stabilizing, with a current price of 83.75 RMB/kg, down 8.2% year-on-year [4] - The average gross profit margin for the carbon fiber industry is currently -0.83 thousand RMB/ton, but has improved by 1.25 thousand RMB/ton since the beginning of the year [4] - The total carbon fiber production capacity in China is 159,500 tons, with expected new capacities of approximately 46,530 tons from 2025 to 2028 [5] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to help reduce supply and increase industry concentration, improving overall industry conditions [5] Summary by Sections Demand Trends - Global carbon fiber demand is projected to reach 156,100 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.7%, with significant growth in the wind power sector (120% increase) [6] - In China, total carbon fiber demand is expected to be 84,000 tons in 2024, up 21.7% year-on-year, with domestic supply increasing by 27.6% [6] Domestic Production and Technology - The domestic carbon fiber industry has accelerated its localization process since the 21st century, overcoming previous technological barriers [7] - A complete industrial system for carbon fiber production has been established in China, with capabilities for high-performance carbon fiber production [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies such as Jilin Chemical Fiber, Jilin Carbon Valley, Zhongfu Shenying, Shanghai Petrochemical, Zhongjian Technology, and Jinggong Technology, as they are expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics [8]