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银河期货原油期货早报-20250725
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-25 08:05
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Crude Oil - Near - term supply - demand is in a tight - balance with marginal relief. Brent's main contract is expected to trade between $67 - 70 per barrel. The market should focus on Middle - East exports and feedstock demand from major consumers in Q3, as well as the progress of China - US trade negotiations [2]. Asphalt - Supply is at a low level year - on - year, and demand improved significantly in Q2. Q3 demand will determine the de - stocking strength during the peak season. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate narrowly, and the crack spread will be stronger [4][5]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure in Q3 is slightly less than expected, and demand for high - sulfur feedstock is expected to increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is rising with no specific demand drivers [6][7]. PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, PR, Pure Benzene and Styrene - Due to factors such as new device production, maintenance, and market demand, short - term prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening [8][11][13][15][18][20]. Plastic PP - There is still significant production capacity pressure in Q3, and the terminal demand is weak year - on - year. Currently, it is mainly macro - led, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC supply - demand has weakened, but short - term prices are expected to be strong due to macro - policies. Caustic soda fundamentals are marginally weaker, but the short - term price is also expected to be strong due to policy and sentiment [29]. Glass and Soda Ash - Macro and industry factors are in resonance, with both futures and spot prices rising. Short - term prices are expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to inventory and demand digestion [32][34]. Methanol - International device start - up rates are rising, and domestic supply is abundant. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [36]. Urea - Domestic supply is abundant, but demand is expected to improve marginally. It is recommended to buy on dips [38]. Double - coated Paper - The market is partially declining, and the supply - demand is weak. Industry players are cautiously waiting and watching [40]. Logs - The price of radiata pine logs in Taicang has increased. Near - term contracts are in the delivery verification stage, and it is recommended to wait and watch [43][44]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - RU and NR contracts are recommended to hold long positions, and the spread between RU2509 and NR2509 should be reduced for observation [48]. Butadiene Rubber - BR contracts are recommended to short - sell a small amount, with a stop - loss set at the night - session high [52]. Pulp - The market is in a stalemate, and the short - term recommendation is to wait and watch [53]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Crude Oil: WTI2509 rose $0.78 to $66.03 per barrel, Brent2509 rose $0.67 to $69.18 per barrel, and SC2509 rose to 507.1 yuan per barrel [1]. - Asphalt: BU2509 closed at 3598 points (+0.31%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3458 points (+0.32%) at night [3]. - Fuel Oil: FU09 closed at 2893 (+1.08%) at night, and LU10 closed at 3567 (+0.31%) at night [5]. - PX: PX2509 closed at 7010 (+0.78%) at night, and the spot price rose to $856 per ton [7]. - PTA: TA509 closed at 4888 (+0.78%) at night, and the spot price was negotiated between 4775 - 4870 yuan [10]. - Ethylene Glycol: EG2509 closed at 4565 (+1.78%) at night, and the spot price was negotiated around 4542 - 4545 yuan [12]. - Short - fiber: PF2509 closed at 6566 (+0.71%) at night, and the spot price was stable [15]. - PR: PR2509 closed at 6096 (+0.89%) at night, and the spot market trading was average [16]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: BZ2503 closed at 6320 (+1.51%) at night, EB2509 closed at 7439 (+1.71%) at night, and the spot prices were in different ranges [18]. - Plastic PP: LLDPE market prices had partial fluctuations, and PP spot prices in different regions had different changes [22]. - PVC and Caustic Soda: PVC prices mostly rose, and caustic soda prices were stable [25][26]. - Glass: The glass futures 09 contract closed at 1346 yuan per ton (+2.98%) at night, and spot prices in different regions had changes [30]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1430 yuan (+1.6%) at night, and spot prices in different regions had changes [33]. - Methanol: The methanol futures closed at 2494 (+1.18%) at night, and spot prices in different regions varied [35]. - Urea: The urea futures closed at 1785 (-0.17%), and the spot prices were stable [38]. - Double - coated Paper: The market had partial declines, and prices in Shandong region decreased [40]. - Logs: The price of radiata pine logs in Taicang increased, and the 9 - month contract fluctuated [43]. - Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber: RU09 rose 1.05%, NR09 rose 1.26%, and BR09 remained unchanged [46][47][50]. - Pulp: The SP09 contract closed at 5454 (-0.04%), and spot prices of different pulp types were in different ranges [53]. Related Information - Crude Oil: Tensions in the Middle - East, US - Venezuela relations, and potential EU - US trade agreements [1][2]. - Asphalt: Price changes in different regions, production status of refineries, and inventory data [3][4]. - Fuel Oil: Inventory changes in ARA and Singapore, and trading in the Singapore spot window [5][6]. - PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, PR: Downstream product sales, device start - up rates, and new device production plans [8][10][12][15][17]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: Device start - up rates, new device production plans, and import data [19][20]. - Plastic PP: Device maintenance, start - up rates, and downstream industry start - up rates [24]. - PVC and Caustic Soda: Inventory changes, device start - up rates, and new device production plans [26][27][29]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Policy consultations, price changes in different regions, and inventory changes [31][33]. - Methanol: Production volume, device start - up rates, and international device status [36]. - Urea: Production volume, start - up rates, and export policies [38]. - Double - coated Paper: Production status of paper mills, inventory changes, and raw material prices [40][41]. - Logs: Price changes, pre - arrival ships, and freight rates [43][44]. - Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber: Border conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia, and tire production line start - up rates [48][51][52]. - Pulp: Industry standard formulation and downstream paper mill demand [54]. Logic Analysis - Crude Oil: Supply - demand balance is affected by Middle - East exports and macro - factors, and long - term supply may be in excess [2]. - Asphalt: Supply - demand is affected by production and demand seasons, and prices are affected by oil prices [4][5]. - Fuel Oil: Supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are affected by different factors such as device start - up and demand seasons [6][7]. - PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, PR: Supply is affected by new device production and maintenance, and demand is affected by the off - season [8][11][13][15][18]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: Supply and demand are expected to increase in Q3, and prices are affected by cost and policy [20]. - Plastic PP: There is production capacity pressure, and demand is weak, but macro - factors play a leading role [24]. - PVC and Caustic Soda: Supply - demand has weakened, but macro - policies support prices [29]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Macro and industry policies drive price increases, but attention should be paid to inventory and demand digestion [32][34]. - Methanol: Abundant supply and stable demand lead to short - term oscillation [36]. - Urea: Supply is abundant, but demand is expected to improve, and prices are affected by exports [38]. - Double - coated Paper: Supply - demand is weak, and factories try to maintain prices [41]. - Logs: Downstream demand is weak, and price support and valuation are affected by multiple factors [44]. - Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber: Tire production line start - up rates and macro - factors affect prices [48][52]. - Pulp: Supply - demand is in a stalemate, and prices are affected by downstream demand [53]. Trading Strategies - Crude Oil: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and gasoline crack spreads are weak while diesel crack spreads are stable [2]. - Asphalt: Unilateral trading is oscillating narrowly, the asphalt - crude oil spread is strong, and options are on hold [5]. - Fuel Oil: Unilateral trading is on hold, and attention should be paid to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot [7]. - PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, PR, Pure Benzene and Styrene: Unilateral trading is oscillating and strengthening, and arbitrage and options are on hold [8][11][13][15][18][20]. - Plastic PP: Unilateral trading is oscillating and strengthening in the short - term, and arbitrage and options are on hold [25]. - PVC and Caustic Soda: Unilateral trading is strong, and arbitrage and options are on hold [30]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Unilateral trading is strong, arbitrage is to go long on glass and short on soda ash, and options are on hold [32][35]. - Methanol: Unilateral trading is oscillating and strengthening, arbitrage is on hold, and sell call options [38]. - Urea: Unilateral trading is to buy on dips, arbitrage is on hold, and sell put options on dips [39]. - Double - coated Paper: No specific trading strategies are provided. - Logs: Unilateral trading is to wait and watch, and arbitrage and options are on hold [45]. - Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber: Hold long positions in RU and NR, reduce the spread between RU2509 and NR2509 for observation, and options are on hold [48]. - Butadiene Rubber: Short - sell a small amount of BR, and arbitrage and options are on hold [52]. - Pulp: Unilateral trading is to wait and watch, and arbitrage is on hold [55].