南华原木产业风险管理日报-20250725

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The commodity market has significant fluctuations, while the log market remains relatively stable with a 6 - day consecutive reduction in positions. The main contract of logs closed at over 830 (+2), with a reduction of 164 lots and a remaining position of 24,000 lots. The subsequent log market is expected to have low - volatility oscillations, and the current valuation is slightly high [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [2]. 3.2 Log Hedging Strategy - Inventory Management: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 875 [2]. - Procurement Management: When the regular procurement inventory is low, to prevent rising log prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy log futures (lg2509) at present with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 810 - 820 [2]. 3.3 Core Contradiction The log market has experienced 6 consecutive days of position - reduction, and the commodity market fluctuates greatly, while the log market is quiet [3]. 3.4 Market Conditions - The main contract closed at over 830 (+2), with a reduction of 164 lots and a remaining position of 24,000 lots [4]. - In the spot market, the price of 4 - meter small A in Taicang increased by 10 yuan/m³, and the price of 5.9 - meter small A in Lanshan decreased by 10 yuan/m³. The spot price of the delivery goods in Taicang increased by 10 yuan. There are no significant changes in the fundamentals. Newly registered warehouse receipts will be cancelled by the end of July if not matched for delivery, and they will not have a significant impact. Future attention should be paid to new warehouse receipts in August [5]. 3.5 Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: Importers are willing to support prices jointly due to continuous import losses; import costs continue to rise; the overall sentiment in the commodity market is warming up [8]. - Negative Factors: The outflow of delivery goods from the 07 contract suppresses the spot price; the shipping volume of foreign suppliers continues to increase [8]. 3.6 Log Data Overview | Category | Indicator | Update Date | Value | MoM | YoY | Frequency | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | Radiata pine import volume | 2025 - 06 - 30 | 1.61 billion m³ | - 800,000 m³ | 35.3% | Monthly | m³ | | Inventory | Port inventory (China) | 2025 - 07 - 18 | 3.29 billion m³ | 700,000 m³ | 4.1% | Weekly | m³ | | | Port inventory (Shandong) | 2025 - 07 - 18 | 1,932,000 m³ | 38,000 m³ | 6.0% | Weekly | m³ | | | Port inventory (Jiangsu) | 2025 - 07 - 18 | 1,107,569 m³ | - 7,431 m³ | 33.9% | Weekly | m³ | | Demand | Average daily log port outbound volume | 2025 - 07 - 18 | 624,000 m³ | 36,000 m³ | 23.3% | Weekly | m³ | | | Average daily outbound volume (Shandong) | 2025 - 07 - 18 | 336,000 m³ | - 17,000 m³ | 31.8% | Weekly | m³ | | | Average daily outbound volume (Jiangsu) | 2025 - 07 - 18 | 232,000 m³ | 47,000 m³ | 32.6% | Weekly | m³ | | Profit | Radiata pine import profit | 2025 - 07 - 25 | - 83 yuan/m³ | 0 | - | Weekly | yuan/m³ | | | Spruce import profit | 2025 - 07 - 25 | - 44 yuan/m³ | - 1 yuan/m³ | - | Weekly | yuan/m³ | | Main Spot | 3.9 - meter medium (3.8A) in Rizhao Port | 2025 - 07 - 25 | 740 yuan/m³ | 0 | - 8.6% | Daily | yuan/m³ | | | 4 - meter medium (3.8A) in Taicang Port | 2025 - 07 - 25 | 760 yuan/m³ | 0 | - 7.3% | Daily | yuan/m³ | | | 5.9 - meter medium (5.8A) in Rizhao Port | 2025 - 07 - 25 | 770 yuan/m³ | 0 | - 7.2% | Daily | yuan/m³ | | | 6 - meter medium (5.8A) in Taicang Port | 2025 - 07 - 25 | 770 yuan/m³ | 0 | - 9.4% | Daily | yuan/m³ | [10]