金融行业双周报（2025、7、11-2025、7、24）-20250725

Investment Ratings - Banking: Overweight (Maintain) [1] - Securities: Market Weight (Maintain) [1] - Insurance: Overweight (Maintain) [3] Core Insights - The securities sector has shown explosive growth in mid-year performance forecasts, with all 31 listed brokerages reporting profit increases or turning losses into profits, led by Guolian Minsheng and Huaxi Securities with net profit growth rates of 1183% and 1025%-1354% respectively [4] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from a new evaluation mechanism that emphasizes long-term investment, which will enhance the allocation of insurance funds into equities and support the stability of capital markets [5][49] - The banking sector is experiencing a technical correction after a rapid increase, but the valuation recovery logic remains intact, with a continued demand for high-dividend, low-valuation bank stocks [6][45] Market Review - As of July 24, 2025, the banking, securities, and insurance indices have shown respective changes of -6.07%, +6.68%, and +2.28%, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increasing by +3.47% during the same period [14] - The banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio has recovered from 0.64 at the beginning of the year to 0.77 in early July, indicating a potential for further valuation recovery [6][24] Valuation Situation - As of July 24, 2025, the PB ratio for the banking sector is 0.74, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks having PB ratios of 0.77, 0.67, 0.75, and 0.66 respectively [24] - The securities sector's PB valuation is at 1.58, indicating a potential for valuation recovery as it is at the 64.30% percentile over the past five years [27] Recent Market Indicators - As of July 24, 2025, the one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate is 2.0%, with the one-year and five-year loan market quotation rates (LPR) at 3.0% and 3.50% respectively [34] - The average daily trading volume of A-shares is 15,260.45 billion yuan, reflecting a 19.76% increase compared to the previous week [35] Investment Recommendations - For the banking sector, focus on regional banks with strong performance such as Ningbo Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Chengdu Bank, as well as larger banks like China Merchants Bank and Agricultural Bank of China [46] - In the insurance sector, consider companies like China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and New China Life Insurance, which are expected to benefit from ongoing reforms and market conditions [50] - In the securities sector, attention should be given to firms like Zheshang Securities and Guolian Minsheng, which are positioned well for growth [48]