镍、不锈钢周报：随风而动-20250725

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for nickel is neutral to bearish, while for tin, no specific investment rating is provided in the report [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the supply of nickel ore gradually increases and the smelting capacity is abundant, the inventory of refined nickel at home and abroad has been accumulating, and the actual demand is not optimistic. Although the trading expectation of the anti - involution policy has not cooled down, the nickel price trend is increasingly deviating from the fundamentals, and there is still upward pressure [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel - Price and Market Performance: - As of July 21, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel content were flat at $30, $58.5, and $80.5 per wet ton respectively compared to last week. The domestic trade nickel ore prices in Indonesia with Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% were flat at $25 and $52.2 per wet ton respectively as of July 18 [3]. - The freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang were flat at $12.5 and $11.5 per wet ton respectively last week [3]. - The electrolytic nickel export profit and loss decreased by $6.65 per ton to $45.4 per ton last week, a decrease of 12.8% [3]. - As of July 21, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by $2 per nickel point to $901.5 per nickel point, a decrease of 0.22% [3]. - As of July 18, the LME nickel price increased by $10 per ton to $15,245 per ton, an increase of 0.07%. The LME nickel 0 - 3 spot premium increased by $7.81 per ton to - $194.43 per ton [21]. - As of July 18, the electrolytic nickel spot price decreased by $650 per ton to $121,500 per ton, a decrease of 0.53% [15]. - As of July 18, the Jinchuan nickel price decreased by $700 per ton to $122,450 per ton, a decrease of 0.57%, and the Jinchuan nickel premium was flat at $2,000 per ton [16]. - Last week, the imported nickel price decreased by $700 per ton to $120,800 per ton, a decrease of 0.58%, and the imported nickel premium was flat at $350 per ton [16]. - Production and Inventory: - As of July 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.04 million tons to 3.22 million tons, an increase of 1.26% [3][43]. - As of July 21, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 815 tons to 22,100 tons, an increase of 3.83%. The LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 0.13 million tons to 207,900 tons, an increase of 0.63% [47]. - Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 1,165 tons to 40,400 tons, an increase of 2.89% [3][47]. - As of July 18, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 7.15 million wet tons, a decrease of 0.69% [32]. - According to customs data, in June 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 4.3466 million tons, an increase of 10.68% month - on - month and a decrease of 9.21% year - on - year. As of June 2025, the cumulative national nickel ore import volume was 14.7812 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 8.36% year - on - year [32]. - Related Products: - As of July 21, the MHP FOB price decreased by $132 per ton to $12,347 per ton, a decrease of 1.06%; the high - grade nickel matte FOB price decreased by $90 per ton to $12,928 per ton, a decrease of 0.69% [38]. - As of July 2025, the Indonesian MHP production increased by 0.07 million tons to 3.87 million tons, an increase of 1.84%; the high - grade nickel matte production increased by 0.08 million tons to 1.35 million tons, an increase of 6.30% [38]. - As of June 2025, the MHP monthly import volume was 1.282 million tons, a decrease of 10.21% month - on - month; the high - grade nickel matte monthly import volume was 225,000 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [38]. Tin - The tin monthly balance sheet shows the production, import, export, consumption, and surplus of tin from January to December 2025. The supply and consumption have different year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes each month [4]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - As of June 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel production decreased by 0.12 million tons to 2.48 million nickel tons, a decrease of 4.69%. Most manufacturers produce according to sales, and the overall production of sulfuric acid nickel is weak this year, with no expectation of resuming production for previously reduced or shut - down manufacturers [58]. - As of June 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel import volume was 1.33 million tons, a decrease of 27.35% month - on - month and a decrease of 10.01% year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 782.1 tons, an increase of 3.66% month - on - month and a decrease of 41.02% year - on - year [58]. - As of July 22, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag decreased to - 2.6%, - 4%, 1.1%, and - 4.1% respectively compared to last week. Most manufacturers using externally purchased raw materials are in losses [65]. Ferronickel - As of June 2025, the national ferronickel production (metal content) decreased by 0.16 thousand tons to 25.64 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.59%. The Indonesian ferronickel production decreased by 0.46 million tons to 13.68 million tons, a decrease of 3.26%. Some Indonesian iron plants have reduced production, and a small number of manufacturers have switched to producing nickel matte [3][74]. - As of July 15, the ferronickel inventory in major domestic regions decreased by 0.43 million tons to 33,200 nickel tons (average grade 11.79%), a decrease of 11.46% [80]. Stainless Steel - As of June 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 17.13 million tons to 329.16 million tons, a decrease of 4.95%. The 300 - series production decreased by 4.07 million tons to 174.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.28% [91]. - As of July 18, the stainless - steel market inventory decreased by 1.97 million tons to 114.78 million tons, a decrease of 1.69%. The 300 - series inventory decreased by 0.74 million tons to 68.75 million tons, a decrease of 1.06% [87]. - As of July 22, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.75 million tons to 10.35 million tons, a decrease of 6.77% [87]. - As of June 2025, China's monthly stainless - steel import volume was 10.95 million tons, a decrease of 12.48% month - on - month and a decrease of 16.61% year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 39.0 million tons, a decrease of 10.63% month - on - month and a decrease of 13.51% year - on - year [91]. - As of July 22, the production cash cost of Chinese cold - rolled 304 stainless steel decreased by $126 per ton to $13,141 per ton, a decrease of 0.92%. The cold - rolled stainless - steel coil profit margin increased by 1.6 percentage points to - 4.88% [96].