我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 油油油MPOB 油油油油油 油油油油 2 0 2 5 / 1 1 / 1 1 作者：聂波 从业资格证号：F03117695 交易咨询证号：Z0019358 研究联系方:niebo@zjtfqh.com 观点小结 周末美国环境保护署允许两份小型炼油厂100%豁免申请，但是有12份只获得50%的豁免申请，同时也拒绝了两份豁免申请， 美豆油主力跌破50美分/磅，但是并未持续较长时间，毕竟此前有消息称关于小型炼油厂豁免申请的批复被延迟到明年初， 虽然也没有豁免义务再分配的消息，但是市场更想等待2026年以以后的合规义务分配量，从EIA公布的8月数据，豆油在美 国生柴的投料比例回升至39%，但是废弃油脂以及动物脂肪的投料比例下跌明显，美豆油需求仍然旺盛，只是略低于去年同 期。 油脂 定性 解析 核心观 中性 10月马来西亚棕榈油产量环比增加11.02%至204万吨，高于市场预估的194-195万吨，分地区来看，马来半岛环比增加6.55%， 沙捞越州和沙巴州分别增15%和19%，进入10月产区旱季明显，多数地区降雨偏低，且10月假期少，当 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for pure benzene is neutral to bearish [4] - The investment rating for styrene is also neutral to bearish [6] 2. Core Views Pure Benzene - Supply: This week, the operating rate of pure benzene increased slightly, with supply rising and significant domestic supply pressure. There are few planned maintenance activities, and future supply is expected to remain at a high level. Ship reports indicate a large number of arrivals in the first 10 days of November, and the overall import volume in November is expected to be high [4] - Demand: The main downstream product, styrene, has low profit margins, leading to many planned future maintenance activities. The overall operating rate of downstream industries has declined again, and demand is expected to remain low in the short term [4] - Inventory: With a large number of incoming ships, port inventory is expected to accumulate in November [4] - Valuation: The BZN spread is low, indicating that the valuation of pure benzene is low [4] - Outlook: There is a mismatch between supply and demand for pure benzene, but the improving gasoline blending demand in Europe and the United States may provide some support. Future demand for pure benzene is expected to be weak, and combined with high supply, the fundamentals are expected to remain weak in the short term. OPEC+ has announced a suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year, and a potential inflection point may occur in the first quarter of next year [4] Styrene - Supply: Due to a large number of maintenance activities, both the operating rate and production of styrene have declined, and the overall future supply is expected to be low [6] - Demand: The overall downstream demand has decreased, and the overall operating rate has declined. There are new PS installations in operation, and new ABS installations may come online in mid - November. The finished product inventory pressure in downstream industries remains, and demand is expected to recover slowly [6] - Inventory: With many styrene maintenance activities, overall inventory is expected to decrease in November [6] - Valuation: The BZ - SM spread is low, indicating that the valuation of styrene is low [6] - Outlook: Styrene supply has tightened significantly, and inventory may decrease in November. Considering the overseas gasoline blending support for pure benzene, styrene is expected to trade sideways in the short term. Some far - month spreads have reached a risk - free level, which is worth attention [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene Supply - The operating rate of pure benzene has been at a high level, and the supply is abundant. There were new maintenance activities at Zhongyuan Ethylene last week. Looking at the annual data, the supply situation is relatively stable, with the total supply in 2025 ranging from 252.88 to 280.26 million tons in different months [4][14][50] - Many enterprises have ongoing or planned maintenance, such as Changyi Petrochemical, Jincheng Petrochemical, etc., with some having undetermined restart times [15] Demand - The overall operating rate of downstream industries is expected to decline, and the profit margins remain low. The main downstream products, including styrene, caprolactam, adipic acid, etc., have shown varying degrees of demand weakness [4][16][27] Inventory - Last week, the inventory at East China ports was 11.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4 million tons. From the monthly data, the inventory is expected to accumulate from November to December, with the port inventory change showing an upward trend in some months [43][50] Valuation - The BZN spread is low, indicating a low valuation of pure benzene [43] External Market Support - The US - Asia arbitrage window has been closed, but the overseas gasoline blending demand may provide some support. In different regions, the demand for pure benzene varies: in North America, chemical demand is weak but gasoline blending demand is good; in Western Europe, demand is weak; in Asia, supply is sufficient, and the consumption of three S products is weak [44][49] Styrene Supply - The supply of styrene in November is expected to decline due to a large number of maintenance activities. There were no new maintenance installations last week, and supply in November and December is expected to be low [54][58] - Many enterprises have carried out or planned maintenance, such as Zhenhai Liande Phase II, Satellite Petrochemical, etc. [56] Demand - The overall downstream demand has decreased, but the profit margins of downstream industries are relatively good. The consumption of downstream products such as ABS, EbS, etc., shows different trends in different months [6][72][93] Inventory - As of now, the inventory at East China ports has decreased to 17.48 million tons, and at South China ports to 2.1 million tons. With the reduction in overall supply, inventory is expected to continue to decline [91] Valuation - The BZ - SM spread is low, indicating a low valuation of styrene [6] External Market Support - In Western Europe, demand is weak, and in Asia, demand is also relatively weak [7]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for PTA is neutral [5]. - The investment rating for PX is neutral [6]. - The investment rating for ethylene glycol (MEG) is neutral, with a cautious - bearish view on the spread and supply, and a cautious - bullish view on processing profit [7]. Group 2: Core Views - PTA: Anticipation leads the way. With a relatively favorable pattern, funds show preference. Currently, PXN has rebounded to a relatively high level. Limited driving force under seasonal inventory accumulation. Pay attention to opportunities for low - buying on pullbacks [5]. - PX: The expected pattern is acceptable. PXN is stable and strong. Short - term valuation is not low. The outlook is positive. Consider low - buying on pullbacks [6]. - MEG: There is a slight increase in maintenance. Valuation is not high, but short - term supply is difficult to clear. In the seasonal inventory accumulation phase, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Spot**: The negotiation atmosphere in the PTA spot market is rather light. The spot basis is relatively stable. The offer in November is around 01 - 75, the bid is around 01 - 80, and the price negotiation range is around 4590 - 4605 [5]. - **Cost**: The expected pattern of PX is not bad. PXN is stable and strong at around $245, and the valuation is not low [5]. - **Device Changes**: There are significant planned maintenance in November. Ineos, Sichuan Energy Investment, and Dushan No.1 are under maintenance. Honggang and YS Ningbo have maintenance plans [5]. - **Downstream Demand**: Demand has slightly weakened from the high level. Polyester load remains stable at 91.3%. Sales volume has increased during the week. Polyester inventory pressure is not large. The operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing are 86%, 76%, and 82% respectively. The estimated polyester operating rates for October and November are 91% and 90.5% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The pressure from November to December is not large. Supply and demand are facing seasonal inventory accumulation [5]. - **Processing Profit**: The PTA - Brent oil price spread is at a low level. PXN has reached over $240, which is not low. PTA processing fees remain at a low level [5]. PX - **Spot**: The negotiation of PX floating prices is deadlocked. There are sell - orders at +1 in the market for December, and it is estimated to be in the range of - 2/0 [6]. - **Device Changes**: The overall domestic PX load is close to the high level of 90%. One line of Fujia has restarted. Wushi Petrochemical, Weilian, and Sinochem Quanzhou have slightly increased their loads [6]. - **Import**: The Asian load is 80%. Thailand's PTTG has slightly reduced its load. Taiwan's FCFC device has restarted. Saudi Arabian devices are under maintenance [6]. - **Downstream Demand**: Demand orders are acceptable, but the marginal demand has slightly weakened. The weaving load remains stable. Polyester load remains stable at 91.3%. Polyester inventory pressure is not large [6]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance pressure from November to December is not large. It is expected that there will be little pressure on PX before the first half of 2026 [6]. - **Processing Profit**: PXN is stable and strong. Currently, PXN is around $245 [6]. MEG - **Spot**: The negotiation in the MEG market is average. Currently, the spot basis is at a premium of 65 - 67 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The negotiation price is 3963 - 3965 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract is traded at a premium of 65 - 67 yuan/ton [7]. - **Device Changes**: The domestic maintenance load of ethylene glycol has slightly decreased. The overall load is 72%, and the coal - chemical load is 72%. Shenghong is under maintenance. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical will restart in mid - November. Fude and Sinochem Quanzhou plan to conduct maintenance in December. Coal - based Yankuang is under maintenance. One line of Shaanxi Coal Yulin is under maintenance. Sinochem is under maintenance. Zhengdaikai plans to conduct maintenance for 10 days in mid - November. Henan Energy Puyang plans to restart in late November [7]. - **Import**: The port inventory is 660,000 tons. The expected arrival volume is not low, and inventory accumulation is expected next week. Overseas devices: Taiwan's Nan Ya is under maintenance. Malaysia's Petronas is shut down. Canada's Shell has restarted [7]. - **Downstream Demand**: The polyester load is 91.3%, indicating good demand. The operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing are 88%, 75%, and 80% respectively. Orders have slightly declined from the high level [7]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The inventory accumulation pressure in October is not large. The supply pressure from November to December is relatively large, and there is an increasing seasonal expected inventory accumulation pressure [7]. - **Processing Profit**: Prices have declined significantly. Oil - based production is in a loss, and coal - based production is on the verge of loss [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current problems on the zinc supply side exceed those on the demand side. In November, domestic apparent demand declined compared to October, in line with seasonality, and cumulative consumption year-on-year remained stable. On the supply side, with high production from domestic smelters, there is a shortage of ore. Due to limited overseas ore increments next year and the winter storage and low internal - external price ratio, ore traders are holding back supplies and pushing up prices. Both internal and external processing fees have declined more than expected, forcing domestic smelters to cut production. November production is expected to be roughly flat month - on - month, but there may be a decline in December [3]. - The issue of short - squeeze with low LME inventories has not been completely resolved. This week, LME inventories remained the same as last week. With the export window on the futures market not open, domestic exports are limited [3]. - Given the expected production cuts by domestic smelters, the non - resumption of overseas smelters, and the non - accumulation of global inventories, institutions and foreign investors increased long positions and reduced short positions last week, leading to a relatively strong rebound in zinc prices [3]. - Macroscopically, overseas, on November 10, the US Senate obtained enough votes to end the government shutdown, and the government is expected to reopen within 1 - 2 weeks, injecting liquidity into the market and providing short - term support for non - ferrous metal prices. In China, the situation of weak reality and strong expectations continues. October PMI and import - export data were weak, but there were differences in performance among industries and enterprises of different scales [3]. - Looking at the subsequent fundamentals, the increase in Xinjiang, China, is the biggest variable. Even if there are problems with zinc ingot production, there is a possibility of selling ore externally. Additionally, the internal - external price difference continues to widen, and it is only a matter of time before zinc ingot exports balance the internal and external markets. Therefore, it is believed that zinc prices may maintain a volatile trend in the short term, but in the medium to long term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is appropriate [3]. - In terms of structure, the low LME inventories are unlikely to end in the short term, and overseas smelters may not resume production until next year. The best time to enter an internal - external reverse arbitrage has not yet arrived [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Balance Sheet - Based on the latest resumption and new production arrangements of smelters, the monthly production from October to December has been slightly adjusted downward [4]. - Considering seasonal patterns in the first quarter of 2026, in terms of exports, it is expected to return to a net - import state as the export window closes. However, given the possible reduction of long - term zinc ingot import contracts next year, a low import volume is estimated [4]. - From the perspective of the domestic monthly balance, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the first quarter of 2026 will continue to increase [4]. 3.2 Main News - Glencore's self - owned zinc production in the third quarter of 2025 was 244,200 tons, 8% higher than the same period in 2025. The total self - owned zinc production in the first three quarters was 709,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. Glencore's self - owned zinc production guidance for 2025 is 950,000 - 975,000 tons [6]. - Penoles' zinc concentrate production in the third quarter of 2025 was 63,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11%. Its zinc production was 45,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.9% [6]. - The Phase I mining project of Fankou Lead - Zinc Mine started with an investment of 830 million yuan. After reaching full production and stabilizing, it is expected to increase annual operating income by over 400 million yuan [6]. - On October 30, the LME announced plans to formulate permanent rules, including restricting members with large positions in near - term contracts and expanding the scope of position restrictions for more immediate delivery positions like "tom - next". The consultation will be open until November 21 [6]. 3.3 Zinc Concentrate Production - In September 2025, domestic zinc concentrate production was 314,500 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.99%. The cumulative production from January to September was 2.727 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.96% [7]. - Since late September, the domestic zinc concentrate TC quotation has declined rapidly. This week, the average was 2,650 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 200 yuan/metal ton [7]. - This week, the import zinc concentrate processing fee index was 98.37 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.17 US dollars/dry ton. Recently, import ore traders have significantly pressured prices, and some zinc - rich ore was traded at 80 - 90 US dollars/dry ton [7]. 3.4 Zinc Concentrate Import - According to customs data, in September 2025, the import volume of zinc ore and its concentrates was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. The cumulative import volume from January to September was 4.0081 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.50% [9]. - The main import sources were Australia (25.2%), Peru (14%), Oman (11.1%), etc. Imports from Oman and Australia increased significantly, while those from Peru, Mexico, and Russia decreased to varying degrees [9]. - As of November 6, the import profit and loss of zinc concentrate was - 1,596 yuan/ton, narrowing by 127 yuan/ton compared to last week [10]. - As of November 7, the weekly inventory of seven major ports was 348,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25,500 tons. Although the import window for zinc concentrate is closed, due to the high demand of domestic smelters, the quantity of imported ore arriving at ports has not decreased significantly, and port inventories have remained at a high level [12][13]. 3.5 Zinc Smelter Production - In October 2025, SMM refined zinc production increased by 17,100 tons month - on - month to 617,200 tons, 5,500 tons lower than expected [18]. - In November, some northern smelters had a faster decline in raw material inventory due to fierce competition for domestic ore and may cut production more than expected. However, with the continued launch of new production capacity and the resumption of smelters that underwent maintenance in October, overall refined zinc production in November is expected to be roughly flat month - on - month [18]. - Recently, smelter profits have significantly declined, but the sulfuric acid price has clearly rebounded since late October. With the support of sulfuric acid and by - product revenues, smelters still have a certain profit margin [18]. - In October, the raw material inventory days of domestic smelters decreased by 4 days to 22.1 days. With relatively low pressure on smelters to maintain production at the end of this year, if the TC continues to decline in December, the possibility of production cuts in December will increase [19]. 3.6 Refined Zinc Import and Export - In September 2025, China imported 22,700 tons of refined zinc and exported 2,500 tons, with a net import of 20,200 tons. The main import countries were Kazakhstan (78%) and Iran (8%), and the main export countries were Indonesia (55%) and Vietnam (20%) [23]. - As of last Friday, the Shanghai - London ratio slightly rebounded to 7.42222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View Since the end of 2019, styrene has experienced at least 4 bull - bear cycles. The reasons for the inflection points are cost - end changes and valuation repair [2]. 3. Summary by Directory First Turning Point (March 2020) - **Fundamentals**: Since its listing in 2019, styrene faced far - month supply - demand imbalance. New production capacity plans were numerous, and there was an expectation of port inventory accumulation at the end of the year. From January to March 2020, the commissioning of Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical increased supply significantly. Due to the Spring Festival off - season and delayed resumption of downstream factories caused by the epidemic, port inventory reached a historical high [3]. - **Macro - level**: From January to March 2020, the epidemic spread globally, economic activities shrank under lockdown measures, and crude oil prices declined. On March 9, OPEC + production - cut negotiations failed, and a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices. China's Q1 GDP in 2020 decreased by 6.77% year - on - year. The Chinese government and central bank implemented expansionary policies, and the Fed continuously cut interest rates and implemented quantitative easing [5]. - **Dominant Factor**: The cost - end changed significantly. Global central banks released liquidity, and the market expected crude oil prices to have bottomed out, so styrene costs "bottomed out." With a loose macro - environment and expansionary fiscal policies, styrene prices turned around at the end of March [9]. Second Turning Point (Mid - June 2022) - **Fundamentals**: In the first half of 2022, multiple plants were commissioned. Terminal demand was weak due to the Spring Festival and the epidemic, and the 3S开工率 gradually weakened. However, the high internal - external price difference led to a 32.29% year - on - year decrease in imports (about 28.25 tons) from January to June and a 91.98% increase in exports (about 20.18 tons), alleviating the weak domestic demand, and inventory showed a seasonal trend [10]. - **Macro - level**: In the first half of 2022, foreign countries resumed production, and oil demand rebounded. The Russia - Ukraine conflict in March and subsequent sanctions led to an expected contraction in crude oil supply and a rise in oil prices. The Fed entered an interest - rate hike cycle, and large - scale interest - rate hikes in May and June suppressed total demand and led to a decline in crude oil prices, causing the second inflection point [12]. - **Dominant Factor**: This was a cost - driven rise. Once the cost - end collapsed and there was no significant fundamental improvement, the inflection point arrived [14]. Third Turning Point (Late June 2023) - **Fundamentals**: Pure benzene inventory was high since 2023. Although port inventory decreased in the first half of the year, there was still a large amount in June, and downstream备货 was sufficient. By the end of June, the recovery of gasoline - blending and chemical demand led to a significant decrease in pure benzene inventory and styrene port inventory, driving up styrene prices [15][16]. - **Macro - level**: In the first half of 2023, although the epidemic lockdown was lifted, macro - economic indicators were poor, and the banking crisis in Europe and the US cast a shadow over the global economy, causing a decline in crude oil prices. Then, OPEC + announced large - scale production cuts, and with the arrival of the summer travel season, gasoline - blending demand increased, and crude oil prices rose [18]. - **Dominant Factor**: The turning point was supported by both fundamentals and a strengthening cost - end [19]. Fourth Turning Point (Early June 2024) - **Fundamentals**: In the first half of 2024, styrene's rise was cost - driven by the increase in pure benzene prices. The market consensus was that pure benzene was in short supply, and port inventory was at a historical low. The styrene - pure benzene price spread contracted continuously and was even negative in June, indicating that styrene was undervalued and pure benzene was overvalued. With the return of pure benzene supply, valuation repair led to a price decline [20]. - **Macro - level**: In the first half of 2024, China's nominal GDP was in a year - on - year contraction, indicating economic pressure. Crude oil prices first rose and then fell in the first half of the year and showed a significant unilateral decline in the second half [23]. - **Dominant Factor**: The inflection point was mainly due to the valuation repair of styrene and pure benzene and the weakening of the cost - end [25]. Summary - **Key Factors for Inflection Points**: For styrene, the turning of the cost - end (pure benzene price) is a key node, which can be affected by pure benzene's fundamentals or crude oil. The second type of inflection point is valuation repair. To find such inflection points, one needs to observe the disappearance or decline of factors causing over - or under - valuation [27]. - **Example of Valuation Repair Signal**: In 2024, the price inversion of pure benzene and styrene and the falsification of the overseas gasoline - blending logic for pure benzene signaled an inflection point [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the overall industry investment rating 2. Core Views Manganese Silicon - The overall view is neutral. This week, the market oscillated and consolidated. The weekly output of ferromanganese silicon decreased slightly, and demand declined marginally. The fluctuations in both the futures and spot markets were small recently. With high production costs, it's difficult for steel mills to purchase at low prices. The price in the northern market is 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, and 5580 - 5620 yuan/ton in the southern market. A large steel mill in Hebei tendered at 5820 yuan/ton. The manganese ore market is firm, and the alloy profit is poor [3]. Ferrosilicon - The overall view is neutral. This week, the market oscillated upwards. The ferrosilicon market was stable, mainly fulfilling orders. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas is 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade ferrosilicon is reported at 5700 yuan/ton. Hebei Steel priced it at 5660 yuan/ton. Production increased slightly, steel mill demand declined marginally, and metal magnesium production increased slightly. The current profitability in the main production areas is poor, and overall costs have risen [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Manganese Silicon Manganese Ore Inventory - The total port inventory of manganese ore is 431.4 tons, with a slight de - stocking compared to the previous period. Tianjin Port's inventory increased slightly to 383.9 tons, still significantly lower than the same period last year. Qinzhou Port's inventory decreased slightly to 47 tons, at a historically low level in recent years [15]. - In Tianjin Port, the inventory of South African ore is 263.9 tons with a slight de - stocking, Gabonese ore is 29 tons with a marginal de - stocking and far lower than last year, and Australian ore is 44.6 tons with a slight de - stocking, slightly higher than last year [19]. Manganese Ore Port Price - The price of Gabonese lumps in Tianjin Port is 40 yuan/ton - degree, Australian lumps are 38.8 yuan/ton - degree, and South African semi - carbonate is 34.2 yuan/ton - degree. The supply - demand game in the manganese ore market has intensified, quotes remain firm, and transactions are adjusted within a narrow range [22]. Manganese Silicon Production - As of November 7, the weekly output of ferromanganese silicon decreased to 20.19 tons. The daily average output in Inner Mongolia decreased to 13850 tons/day, remained stable at 6785 tons/day in Ningxia, decreased significantly to 1410 tons/day in Yunnan, decreased slightly to 2300 tons/day in Guizhou, and decreased slightly to 1535 tons/day in Guangxi [32]. Manganese Silicon Demand - As of November 7, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises is 12.11 tons. The weekly production of the five major steel products decreased to 856.74 tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data decreased slightly, slightly lower than the historical average [41]. Manganese Silicon Price - The price in the Inner Mongolia market is around 5620 yuan/ton, and 5680 yuan/ton in Tianjin. Hebei Steel's tender price is 5820 yuan/ton [54]. Chemical Coke Price - As of November 6, the chemical coke price remained stable. The ex - factory prices of 25 - 40mm coke in Yinchuan, Ordos, and Alxa are 1240, 1160, and 1190 yuan/ton respectively. The third round of coke price increase has been implemented, and the market is watching for the fourth round [57]. Manganese Silicon Production Profit - The immediate profit of ferromanganese silicon is low, and the north - south differentiation has intensified [61]. Manganese Silicon Month - to - Month Spread - As of November 6, the 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of ferromanganese silicon is - 50 yuan/ton, oscillating at a low level [66]. Manganese Silicon Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The market oscillated and consolidated, and the basis did not change significantly. As of November 6, the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of ferromanganese silicon is 8.03 tons. Attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery [70]. Ferrosilicon Ferrosilicon Weekly Production - As of November 7, the weekly supply increased slightly to 11.41 tons. The daily average output in Inner Mongolia is 5260 tons, 2315 tons in Qinghai, 4250 tons in Ningxia, and 2630 tons in Shaanxi [78][79]. Ferrosilicon Demand - Steel Mills - The demand for ferrosilicon from steel mills decreased slightly. The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills is 1.98 tons, lower than the same period last year [83]. Ferrosilicon Demand - Metal Magnesium - As of November 6, the export price of metal magnesium at Tianjin Port is 2345 US dollars/ton, and the market price is 16250 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase. The weekly production of metal magnesium is 18410 tons, continuing to increase slightly. Due to rising coal prices, the cost of magnesium plants has increased. Most factories in Fugu have suspended quotes, waiting and watching the market. Factories have a strong willingness to raise prices, and the supply - demand game is obvious. The short - term market is expected to remain strong and stable [91]. Ferrosilicon Export - As of November 7, the overseas FOB price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon is 1100 US dollars/ton, and 1045 US dollars/ton for 72 - grade ferrosilicon, showing a slight decline. In September, the import volume of ferrosilicon increased slightly month - on - month, and the export volume increased significantly, higher than the same period last year [96]. Ferrosilicon Raw Materials - As of November 7, the quotes of small - sized blue charcoal in the mainstream regions increased slightly month - on - month. The current prices are 820 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 810 yuan/ton in Ningxia, and 800 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price of oxidized iron scale is 750 yuan/ton [107]. Ferrosilicon Production Profit - As of November 7, the point - to - point profit of ferrosilicon is in the red. The loss is relatively large in Shaanxi, and the loss in Qinghai has increased significantly. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai are - 336, - 509, - 543, and - 547 yuan/ton respectively [119]. Ferrosilicon Month - to - Month Spread - As of November 6, the 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of ferrosilicon is - 64 yuan/ton, strengthening slightly compared to the previous period [122]. Ferrosilicon Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The market oscillated upwards, and the basis of ferrosilicon weakened slightly. As of November 6, the basis is - 366 yuan/ton. As of November 6, the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of ferrosilicon is 4.72 tons. Attention should be paid to the recovery of warehouse receipts [126]. Balance Sheet Manganese Silicon - The total supply from June 2025 to May 2026 ranges from 83.6 to 98.8 tons, with production being the main component and imports remaining stable at 0.2 tons. The total demand ranges from 82.4 to 93.9 tons, mainly for steel consumption. There are periods of surplus and deficit, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption show different trends [128]. Ferrosilicon - The total supply from June 2025 to May 2026 ranges from 45.0 to 51.0 tons, with production and imports contributing. The total demand ranges from 45.9 to 52.1 tons, including domestic consumption and exports. The consumption is mainly for crude steel and metal magnesium. There are also periods of surplus and deficit, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption vary [129].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply of iron ore has slightly declined but remains high. The downstream profit has significantly decreased, and demand may continue to decline. However, the inventory of downstream finished products is still being reduced. Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, but the high basis recently may suppress the weakness of futures prices [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments have declined but are still significantly high. Shipments from Australia and Brazil have decreased, and shipments from non - mainstream regions have been consistently weak. The arrival volume has increased [4]. - **Demand**: Hot metal production has decreased significantly, the profit of finished steel products has continued to weaken, and the scrap - iron price difference has continued to decline. The average daily hot metal production of 247 samples has decreased by 3.6 tons week - on - week to 236.36 tons. With more recent maintenance, hot metal production may continue to decline [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports has increased by 117 tons week - on - week, the berthing volume has slightly decreased, and the total volume has decreased slightly. The total inventory of five major steel products has decreased slightly. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils has decreased slightly [4]. 3.2 Month - to - Month Spread The month - to - month spread may remain volatile in the short term [5]. 3.3 Discount & Exchange Rate The average value of the 10 - month MA index is 105, corresponding to a disk valuation of approximately 823 [6]. 3.4 Differences between Varieties The premium of Jinbabu powder has stabilized; the premiums of mainstream medium - and low - grade ores have remained stable; the price difference between domestic and foreign ores has slightly increased [7]. 3.5 Spot Market - **Volume**: The trading volume of iron ore spot has increased, and the trading volume of forward contracts has stabilized. The basis rate of the 01 contract is about 2.8%, the basis has narrowed, and the basis rate has decreased [8]. - **Hot Metal**: The hot metal production of 247 samples announced by Steel Union this week is 239.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05 tons. The average daily hot metal production in October is about 239.9 tons. Short - term demand has slightly decreased, and hot metal production may decline slowly [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports has increased by 139 tons week - on - week, and the proportion of trade ore is 64.1%. The total inventory of imported ore at steel mills has increased by 97 tons, the inventory at the mill has decreased by 36 tons, and the sum of sea - floating and port inventory has increased by 133 tons. The available days of imported ore have remained unchanged at 20 days [8]. - **Profit**: The profit of finished steel products has continued to weaken; the scrap - iron price difference in Tangshan has decreased; the proportion of lump ore in the furnace has slightly decreased, the proportion of pellet ore in the furnace has decreased; and the proportion of sinter in the furnace has continued to increase [8]. 3.6 Global Shipments On November 3, 2025, according to Reuters, the 7 - day moving average shipment volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 4,571 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.8% and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The 7 - day moving average shipment volume from Australia was 2,650 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. The 7 - day moving average shipment volume from Brazil was 1,164 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [30]. 3.7 Balance Sheet - **Supply**: The total supply in 2025 shows fluctuations, with imports being the main part. The supply in November 2025 is expected to be 13,214 tons [192]. - **Consumption**: Total consumption also fluctuates. The consumption in November 2025 is expected to be 11,843 tons [192]. - **Surplus**: There are periods of surplus and deficit. In November 2025, there is an expected surplus of 1,184 tons [192]. - **Year - on - Year Changes**: The cumulative year - on - year change in total supply and total consumption shows different trends. The cumulative year - on - year change in total supply in November 2025 is 0.6%, and that of total consumption is - 5.3% [192].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is expected to remain volatile. The rainy season in the Surigao mining area of the Philippines has tightened the shipment volume of nickel ore. In Indonesia, the domestic trade premium of nickel ore has been stable, providing strong cost support at the mine end. Affected by macro - sentiment, nickel prices are under short - term pressure. However, the strong cost resilience in the fourth quarter and potential disturbances in the RKAB approval process in Indonesia will limit the further decline of nickel prices, while upward breakthroughs are still restricted by fundamentals [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Market Overview - In the nickel market, prices are within the oscillation range. In the stainless - steel market, the upward space of steel prices is restricted by factors such as high inventory, weak demand, and weakened cost support [3][4][5]. Industry News Update - Xiamen Tungsten New Energy and GEM signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement. From 2026 - 2028, GEM is expected to supply 150,000 tons of various battery raw materials and products annually, totaling 450,000 tons in three years [7]. - The London Metal Exchange received an application for the listing of the "PTENICO" nickel brand from PT Eternal Nickel Industry [7]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association announced an increase in the reference price of domestic nickel ore trade in October 2025 (Phase II) [7]. - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics reported a surplus in global refined nickel supply in August 2025 and from January - August 2025 [7]. - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources formulated rules for the online approval of the next - year's RKAB for mines starting in October each year [7]. Market Price Performance Futures and Spot Prices - The Shanghai nickel main contract 2512 fell 1.28% last week. The spot price of electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.85% week - on - week to $122,000 per ton as of November 3 [9][13]. - The price of Jinchuan nickel dropped by 0.76% week - on - week to $123,350 per ton, with a premium increase of $150 to $2,600 per ton. The price of imported nickel decreased by 0.9% week - on - week to $121,150 per ton, with a stable premium [13]. Export and Import Windows - As of October 31, the LME nickel price decreased by 0.49% week - on - week to $15,250 per ton. The electrolytic nickel import and export losses increased [18]. NPI and Sulfuric Acid Nickel Prices - The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.59% week - on - week to $923 per nickel point as of November 3. The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained stable, while the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased [27]. Supply - side Analysis Nickel Ore - As of October 31, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore at 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% remained unchanged week - on - week. The domestic trade prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% nickel ore also remained stable [32]. - Nickel ore port inventory decreased by 1.76% week - on - week to 10.06 million wet tons as of October 31. In September 2025, the national nickel ore import volume decreased by 3.51% month - on - month but increased by 34.43% year - on - year [35]. MHP and High - Grade Nickel Matte - As of October 31, the FOB price of MHP increased by 2.01% week - on - week to $13,422 per ton, and the FOB price of high - grade nickel matte increased by 1.86% week - on - week to $13,711 per ton [41]. - In October 2025, the production of Indonesian MHP increased by 0.74% month - on - month to 41,000 nickel tons, while the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 1.77% month - on - month to 22,200 tons [42]. Refined Nickel - In October 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly production increased by 0.84% month - on - month to 35,900 tons, an increase of 17.06% year - on - year [49]. - As of October 31, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 17.08% week - on - week to 31,400 tons, and LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 0.60% week - on - week to 252,800 tons [51]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - In October 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly production increased by 6.66% month - on - month to 36,200 nickel tons. The raw material shortage limited capacity release, and the market supply was still tight [64]. Nickel Pig Iron - In October 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal volume) increased by 22.72% month - on - month to 28,100 tons. The production in Indonesia increased by 6.58% month - on - month to 149,100 nickel tons [77]. Demand - side Analysis Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract ss2512 fell 1.21% last week. The spot price of the 304 variety decreased by $50 - $300 due to weak fundamentals [86]. - In October 2025, the estimated output of domestic stainless - steel mills' crude steel increased by 0.57% month - on - month. It is expected to decrease by 2.06% in November [89]. - As of October 31, the stainless - steel social inventory increased by 0.36% week - on - week to 1.0311 million tons. The cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 1.05% week - on - week to $12,800 per ton as of November 3 [92][96]. China's Primary Nickel Balance Sheet - From May 2025 to May 2026, the total supply of nickel generally showed an upward trend, and the total demand also increased steadily. The supply - demand balance remained positive, indicating a supply surplus in the market [4].

Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Neutral [5] - PX: Neutral [6] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Neutral for overall view, with cautious bias in some aspects [7] Core Views - PTA has fair supply - demand, with a slight reduction in supply - side load. It faces seasonal inventory accumulation pressure from November to December, is highly affected by cost, and has limited improvement in supply - demand [5][44]. - PX has a high domestic supply, fair demand, and a favorable expected pattern. Its floating price remains strong, PXN valuation is reasonable, and it fluctuates with cost in the short - term [6]. - Ethylene glycol has some increased maintenance, fair demand, but lacks driving force in the seasonal inventory accumulation period. High supply causes pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [7][112]. Summary by Related Catalogs Demand and Polyester Situation - Domestic demand is fair, with terminal fabric sales improving, finished - product inventory decreasing, and the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing rising to 86%, 76%, and 82% respectively. Polyester load reached 91.7% by October 31st, with inventory pressure easing and expected high - level operation in November [9][14]. - Polyester profit is slightly compressed due to the rebound of raw materials. Long - filament profitability is reduced, while bottle - grade and staple - fiber cash flows are fair [15]. PTA Situation - PTA maintenance plans in November are not few. YS Dahua and Shandong Weilian slightly reduced their loads, and Ineos, Sichuan Energy Investment, Dushan 1, and Honggang have maintenance plans. Dushan Energy's new device has started production [36][44]. - As of October 31st, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased to 220.7 tons, up 0.6 tons. In - port and in - warehouse goods slightly decreased, and credit warehouse receipts increased [40]. - PTA supply - side maintenance volume is high, demand is fair, and the inventory accumulation pressure from November to December is slightly reduced. Processing fees are still low, and it is mainly affected by cost in the short - term [44]. PX Situation - The US gasoline inventory continues to decline, and the octane number is stable and strong. The economics of gasoline blending has improved, while the Asian disproportionation profit has been compressed [56][59]. - The PX domestic load is at a high level of 87%. Wushi Petrochemical has restarted after maintenance, and Fujia plans to restart a production line. Asian load is 78%, with some devices having maintenance or restart plans [6][65]. - The PX balance sheet is expected to be tight, the floating price has improved, and PXN is around $240, with a reasonable valuation. It is affected by cost in the short - term [70]. Ethylene Glycol Situation - As of October 31st, the overall load of ethylene glycol is at a high level of 76%, and the coal - based load is 83%. Some devices have restarted, some are under maintenance, and there are maintenance and load - reduction plans in November and December [78][82]. - Overseas, Maoming Petrochemical is shut down, Taiwan Nanya is under maintenance, and some US and Canadian devices have restarted or are under maintenance. Imports may increase in November [97]. - As of November 3rd, the port inventory of MEG in East China is about 56.2 tons, up 3.9 tons. The expected arrival volume is high, and short - term port inventory is expected to accumulate [107]. - From November to December, ethylene glycol maintains seasonal inventory accumulation, with high supply pressure and general driving force, and is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [112].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon in the report are generally neutral, with the inventory of both being rated as weak and the cost - profit being rated as strong [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints Manganese - silicon - The futures market fluctuated upwards this week. Weekly production increased slightly, and demand recovered. At the end of the month, warehouse receipts were concentrated for cancellation, and attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery. The spot market quotations were few. The price in the northern market was 5600 - 5660 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5650 - 5650 yuan/ton. A large steel mill in Hebei tendered at 5820 yuan/ton. The manganese ore market was firm and rising, and the cost of alloys was under pressure, with poor profit margins [3] Ferrosilicon - The futures market fluctuated upwards this week. Market sentiment was average, with most adopting a cautious approach. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5200 - 5200 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group set the price at 5660 yuan/ton, and Shagang at 5700 yuan/ton. Production decreased slightly, while demand continued to increase slightly, and the production of magnesium metal increased slightly. The current profitability in the main production areas was poor, and the cost did not change significantly [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Manganese Ore Inventory - The total port inventory of manganese ore was 442.7 million tons, with a slight increase compared to the previous period. Tianjin Port's inventory increased to 386.4 million tons, still lower than the same period last year, and Qinzhou Port's inventory decreased to 55.8 million tons, also lower than last year [14] - In Tianjin Port, the inventory of South African ore decreased to 265.2 million tons, the inventory of Gabonese ore increased significantly to 34.8 million tons (far lower than last year), and the inventory of Australian ore increased significantly to 52.9 million tons (higher than last year) [19] Price - The price of Gabonese lumps at Tianjin Port was 39.8 yuan/ton degree, Australian lumps were 39 yuan/ton degree, and South African semi - carbonate was 34.2 yuan/ton degree. UMK announced the price of semi - carbonate in the northern market for November at 4.1 US dollars/ton degree, which was consistent with the transaction price in the southern market. Market sentiment for receiving goods was positive [22] Manganese - silicon Production - As of October 31, the weekly production of manganese - silicon increased to 20.77 million tons. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia decreased to 13,950 tons/day, that in Ningxia increased to 6,785 tons/day, that in Yunnan remained at 2,290 tons/day, and that in Guizhou decreased slightly to 2,200 tons/day [32] Demand - As of October 31, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises was 124,500 tons, and the weekly production of the five major steel products decreased to 8.7529 million tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data increased slightly, slightly lower than the historical average [40] Price - The price in the Inner Mongolia market was around 5680 yuan/ton, and in the Tianjin area, it was 5720 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group tendered at 5820 yuan/ton [47] Cost and Profit - The price of chemical coke was stable. The second round of coke price increase was implemented, and the profit of alloys was poor. The spot price of manganese ore was firm, and downstream procurement was cautious. Due to the delay in foreign pricing, the sentiment of reluctance to sell at low prices for semi - carbonate increased, and the transaction price increased by about 0.2 yuan/ton degree [3] Month - to - Month Spread - As of October 30, the 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of manganese - silicon was - 48 yuan/ton, continuing to fluctuate at a low level [59] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures market fluctuated upwards, and the basis strengthened slightly. As of October 30, the total of manganese - silicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 60,600 tons. Warehouse receipts were concentrated for cancellation in October, and attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery [63] Ferrosilicon Production - As of October 31, the weekly production was 113,200 tons, a slight decrease compared to the previous period. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia was 5,160 tons, in Qinghai was 2,345 tons, in Ningxia was 4,250 tons, and in Shaanxi was 2,610 tons [68] Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon from steel mills continued to recover. The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills was 20,300 tons, slightly lower than the same period last year. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly [72][82] Export - As of October 30, the overseas FOB price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 1105 US dollars/ton, and that of 72 - grade was 1055 US dollars/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. In September, the import volume increased slightly, and the export volume increased significantly, higher than the same period last year [87] Raw Materials - As of October 30, the prices of small - sized blue charcoal in major regions increased slightly. The prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were 750 yuan/ton, 810 yuan/ton, and 800 yuan/ton respectively. The price of iron oxide scale increased to 750 yuan/ton [99] Cost and Profit - As of October 30, the on - the - spot profit of ferrosilicon was in a loss state. The loss in Shaanxi was relatively large, and that in Qinghai was relatively small. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai were - 378 yuan/ton, - 359 yuan/ton, - 463 yuan/ton, and - 147 yuan/ton respectively [106] Month - to - Month Spread - As of October 30, the 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of ferrosilicon was - 98 yuan/ton, weakening slightly compared to the previous period [112] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures market fluctuated upwards, and the basis of ferrosilicon weakened slightly. As of October 30, the basis was - 300 yuan/ton. The total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 37,500 tons. Attention should be paid to the recovery of warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation in October [116] Balance Sheet Manganese - silicon - From June 2025 to May 2026, the total supply and demand of manganese - silicon showed different trends. There were periods of surplus and shortage. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of production and consumption also changed over time [118] Ferrosilicon - From June 2025 to May 2026, the total supply and demand of ferrosilicon also showed different trends. There were periods of surplus and shortage. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of production and consumption also changed over time [119]