GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-07-25 08:28Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [5]. Core Insights - The overall market in Q2 2025 shows weak transaction volumes, stable prices lacking trends, and increasing inventory with heightened de-stocking pressure [3]. - Only 19% of the 27 cities analyzed exhibit signs of market bottoming, indicating a general trend of "volume contraction, price stagnation, and inventory pressure" [12]. - The new housing market is experiencing a downturn, with first-tier cities showing a significant slowdown in sales growth, while the second-hand housing market demonstrates relative resilience but with increasing regional disparities [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Transaction Decline and Lengthening De-stocking - The report highlights that the real estate cycle varies significantly across cities due to localized policies and differing reliance on land finance [8]. - A comprehensive scoring model based on seven core indicators is used to assess the real estate cycle of each city, categorizing them into four stages: bottoming, rising, topping, and declining [8][9]. 2. Price Trends: Q2 New and Second-hand Housing Prices Decline - In Q2 2025, new housing prices experienced a slight decline after a period of stabilization, with 85% of cities unable to sustain price increases for more than two months [17]. - Second-hand housing prices also fell, with 78% of cities still in a downward trend by June [17][19]. 3. Transaction Volume: Weak Recovery and Increased Volatility - First-tier cities maintained an upward trend in new housing transactions until June, where a decline of 12% was noted [22]. - Second-tier cities saw a 15% year-on-year drop in new housing transactions in Q2, reflecting greater inventory pressure and declining buyer confidence [22][27]. 4. Demand Entering a Tug-of-War Phase Leading to Rising Inventory Cycles - The de-stocking cycle for first-tier cities increased to 20 months by June 2025, indicating intensified market supply-demand conflicts [29]. - Second-tier cities faced even longer de-stocking cycles, reaching 23 months, highlighting structural issues such as declining population attraction and excess land supply [29]. 5. Company Profit Forecasts - The report includes profit forecasts for key companies, with several companies rated as "Accumulate" based on their projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [32].