Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "positive," indicating a relative performance stronger than the market benchmark index by over 5% [33]. Core Insights - The global silver market has entered a new phase of structural supply-demand gap expansion, with signs of a rightward shift in the demand curve [1]. - Industrial demand is the primary component of silver demand, accounting for 58.5% of the total demand in 2024, with a total global silver demand projected at 36,207 tons [1][2]. - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for global silver demand from 2019 to 2024 is 3%, with industrial silver demand growing at a CAGR of 5.4% during the same period [2]. - The electronic and electrical sectors are the main drivers of industrial silver demand, with the photovoltaic industry being a significant contributor [3][5]. Summary by Sections Silver Demand Composition - In 2024, silver demand is composed of industrial demand (21,165 tons, 58.5%), jewelry (6,491 tons, 17.9%), and physical investment (5,939 tons, 16.4%) [1]. - The demand from the silverware and photography sectors is relatively minor, at 1,684 tons (4.7%) and 792 tons (2.2%) respectively [1]. Industrial Silver Demand Growth - From 2019 to 2024, industrial silver demand increased from 16,281 tons to 21,165 tons, contributing 98% to the total growth in silver demand during this period [2]. - The electronic and electrical sector's silver demand is projected to reach 14,323 tons in 2024, accounting for 67.7% of industrial silver demand [3]. Photovoltaic Industry Impact - The shift from P-type to N-type solar cells is expected to increase silver consumption in the photovoltaic sector, with N-type cells requiring significantly more silver per gigawatt [6]. - The projected silver consumption in the photovoltaic sector for 2025-2027 is expected to grow steadily, reaching 6,552 tons, 7,128 tons, and 7,500 tons respectively [6]. Automotive Sector Contribution - The growth of the new energy vehicle sector is anticipated to further drive silver demand, with projected consumption in the automotive sector reaching 2,566 tons, 2,799 tons, and 2,926 tons from 2025 to 2027 [7]. Overall Silver Demand Forecast - The global silver demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.9% from 2024 to 2027, reaching 39,457 tons by 2027, with industrial demand's share increasing from 58.5% to 59.7% [9]. - The supply-demand gap for silver is projected to widen, with supply growth expected to lag behind demand growth, leading to a tightening market [9].
首席周观点:2025年第30周-20250725