集运日报：宏观整体情绪较强，盘面偏强震荡，近月保持基差修复，今日若回调可考虑加仓，设置好止损-20250725

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall macro sentiment is strong, and the market is oscillating strongly. The near - month contracts are repairing the basis. Traders can consider adding positions on a pull - back today and set stop - losses [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the trading difficulty is high. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [4]. 3. Summaries by Related Content 3.1 Freight Indexes - On July 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% [3]. - On July 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1147.96 points, down 5.75% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1440.25 points, up 0.35%; for the US - West route, it was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% [3]. - On July 18, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) published price was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 2079 USD/TEU, down 1.00%; for the US - West route, it was 2142 USD/FEU, down 2.4% [3]. - On July 18, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1303.54 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1803.42 points, up 4.5%; for the US - West route, it was 941.65 points, down 8.4% [3]. 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, the service PMI was 50 (a 2 - month high), and the composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [3]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May [3]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the service PMI was 53.1 (a 2 - month low), and the composite PMI was 52.8 (a 2 - month low) [3]. 3.3 Trade Policies and Market Conditions - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. The tariff negotiation date was postponed to August 1. Some shipping companies announced price increases, and the spot market had a small price increase to test the market [4]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term Strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers were recommended to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300 points). Consider taking profits if it continues to pull back today. It was recommended to go short on the EC2512 contract with a light position [4]. - Arbitrage Strategy: In the context of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term Strategy: It was recommended to take profits when the contracts reached high levels, wait for the pull - back to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [4]. 3.5 Contract Information - On July 24, the main contract 2510 closed at 1583.9, up 3.73%, with a trading volume of 65,200 lots and an open interest of 50,600 lots, an increase of 455 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%. The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4].