金信期货农产品周刊

Report on Different Commodities 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - Pig: The current situation of oversupply continues. The pig price is expected to remain weak next week, but the policy-driven inventory reduction expectation boosts the futures price. It is recommended to observe the market situation [5][6]. - Egg: As the egg price reaches a high level, the market acceptance is limited, and the market trading slows down. It is recommended to enter the market at a low price and focus on the 01 contract [20]. - Soybean Meal: Domestic policies have new changes, and the short - term is a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended to make long - term layouts at low prices [33]. - Palm Oil: The decline in Malaysian palm oil exports and increase in production suppress the futures price, while the domestic price is relatively firm. The import profit is improving, and it is expected to remain weak in the short term [46]. 3. Summary by Commodity Pig - Demand: In the hot weather, pork consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is limited. The weekly slaughter volume of the sample is 1.5144 million heads, a 3.02% increase from last week [5]. - Supply: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs requires reasonable elimination of sows and reduction of secondary fattening. The inventory of sows in 123 large - scale farms in June increased slightly month - on - month and year - on - year. In July, the risk of swine fever persists, and the elimination of sows may increase [5]. - Inventory: In June, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 0.30% month - on - month and 5.63% year - on - year. In May, the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 0.57% month - on - month and 7.00% year - on - year [5]. - Profit: The pig - raising profit is still divided. The average 30 - week profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 72.10 yuan per head, a decrease of 42.76 yuan per head compared with last week. The average 30 - week loss of purchasing piglets is 117.52 yuan per head, an increase of 45.68 yuan per head compared with last week [5]. - Conclusion: The national average pig - slaughtering price this week is 14.25 yuan/kg, a 2.13% decrease from last week and a 25.39% decrease year - on - year. The pig price rebounds and then continues to fall, and the large - scale farms accelerate the slaughtering rhythm [6]. Egg - Demand: The egg sales volume in five representative sales areas is 5,875.68 tons, a 2.05% increase from last week. The egg price in the production area is strong, and the domestic sales in the production area are good [19]. - Supply: The shipment volume of 15 representative markets in the main production areas is 6,312.25 tons, a 1.33% increase from last week and a 16.81% decrease year - on - year. The shipment volume first increases and then decreases this week [19]. - Inventory: As of Thursday this week, the production - link inventory is 0.50 days, a 13.8% decrease from last week; the circulation - link inventory is 0.58 days, a 21.62% decrease from last week. It is expected that the inventory in the breeding and circulation links will increase slightly next week [19]. - Profit: The cost of egg - laying chicken farming this week is 3.54 yuan/jin, a 0.28% increase from last week. The farming profit is - 0.32 yuan/jin, a 58.44% increase from last week. The egg price has increased significantly this week, and the farming profit has increased significantly [20]. Soybean Meal - Demand: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' policy is negative for soybean meal demand [32]. - Supply: As of the week of July 18, the good - quality rate of soybeans in 18 US states is 68%, a 2% decrease from the previous week, the same as last year. The proportion of high - quality soybeans in Argentina is 58%, the same as the previous week and higher than last year. The inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills is 7.12 million tons, with a slight decrease week - on - week and an increase month - on - month [32]. - Inventory: The domestic soybean meal inventory is 1.01 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons week - on - week and 500,000 tons month - on - month, but a decrease of 280,000 tons year - on - year [32]. - Profit: The profit from importing Brazilian and Argentine soybeans for oil extraction first rises and then falls this week [32]. Palm Oil - Demand: Indonesia is studying increasing the biodiesel blending ratio, and the palm oil imports of India and China have increased significantly [46]. - Supply: From July 1 - 20, the yield of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches increased by 7.03%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.16%, and the palm oil production increased by 6.19%. It is still in the traditional production - increasing period [46]. - Inventory: The commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions is 591,400 tons, a 5.04% increase from last week and a 23.49% increase from last year [46]. - Profit: As of July 24, the FOB price of palm oil for the August shipment is 1,039 US dollars/ton, an increase of 29 US dollars/ton from last week. The import cost is 9,145 yuan/ton, an increase of 214 yuan/ton. The hedging profit is - 41 yuan/ton, an increase of 134 yuan/ton from last week [46].