Southwest Securities·2025-07-25 08:28Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry as of July 25, 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in phosphate fertilizer exports, particularly in June 2025, with ammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate exports reaching 165,600 tons and 506,300 tons respectively, marking substantial month-on-month increases [1]. - The report anticipates a concentrated export period in the third quarter, driven by strong demand from Southeast Asia, which is expected to further boost domestic phosphate fertilizer exports [1]. - Export prices for phosphate fertilizers are favorable, with a notable price difference between domestic and export markets, suggesting potential for increased profitability for leading phosphate companies [2]. Summary by Sections Export Trends - In June 2025, phosphate fertilizer exports saw a significant increase, with ammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate exports rising by 149,600 tons and 493,400 tons respectively compared to May [1]. - The second and third quarters are typically peak export periods, with 2024 data showing that ammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate exports in the second quarter accounted for 41.63% and 30.02% of annual exports, respectively [1]. Price Analysis - As of July 23, 2025, the market average price for ammonium phosphate (55% powder) was 3,303 CNY/ton, while the FOB price for ammonium phosphate (55% granular) was 581 USD/ton, indicating a price difference of 846 CNY/ton [2]. - The price for diammonium phosphate (64% in Hubei) was 3,805 CNY/ton, with an FOB price of 768 USD/ton, resulting in a price difference of 1,680 CNY/ton [2]. Key Companies - Yuntianhua (600096) is identified as a leading domestic phosphate chemical company with a phosphate rock capacity of 14.5 million tons/year and a phosphate fertilizer capacity of 5.55 million tons/year, contributing over 20% to national phosphate fertilizer exports [3]. - Hubei Yihua (000422) is a major producer of diammonium phosphate with a production capacity of 1.26 million tons/year and projected exports of 576,100 tons in 2024 [3]. - Xingfa Group (600141) has a phosphate rock capacity of 5.85 million tons/year and a production capacity of 1 million tons/year for ammonium phosphate, achieving a capacity utilization rate of 104.78% in 2024 [3]. - Xinyangfeng (000902) is a leading player in the compound fertilizer sector, with ammonium phosphate production capacity of 1.85 million tons/year and projected production and sales of 1.9789 million tons and 1.1290 million tons respectively in 2024 [3].