钢矿短期可能回调，中长期偏多

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The steel and ore prices have risen rapidly recently, driven by macro - expectations and anti - involution expectations. The medium - term trend is expected to be strong, with the rebar main contract likely to break through 3400, and iron ore performing weaker than finished products. There may be adjustments after the short - term rapid rise. The market may have reversed rather than just rebounded. [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel and Ore Market Situation - This week, the steel and ore market was strong, hitting new highs and breaking through the first - half highs [7]. Important Information - From January to June 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume was 24.13 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%; new orders were 44.33 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.2%; as of the end of June, the order backlog was 234.54 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.7% [12]. - In the first half of 2025, China's crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [12]. - In August 2025, the production plan for household air conditioners was 11.155 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1%, with domestic sales planned at 6.51 million units (down 5.3% year - on - year) and exports at 4.645 million units (down 9.5% year - on - year) [12]. - Relevant departments are promoting the rectification of involution - style competition and taking measures to regulate the market [12]. - Japan launched an anti - dumping investigation on cold - rolled stainless steel sheets and coils from China [12]. - The second round of coke price increase started on July 22, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamped wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamped dry - quenched coke [13]. - In the first half of this year, China completed 532.9 billion yuan in water conservancy construction investment, implemented 34,400 water conservancy projects, and started 18,800 new projects [13]. Steel Supply, Inventory and Consumption - This week, the total steel supply was 8.6697 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,200 tons (0.1%); the total inventory was 13.365 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,600 tons (0.1%); the apparent consumption was 8.6813 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,800 tons (0.2%) [14]. - This week, rebar supply was 2.1196 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,000 tons (1.4%); total inventory was 5.3864 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 46,200 tons (0.9%); apparent consumption was 2.1658 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.0% [17]. - This week, hot - rolled steel supply was 3.1749 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36,500 tons (1.1%); total inventory was 3.4516 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,500 tons (0.7%); apparent consumption was 3.1524 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 85,500 tons (2.6%) [17]. - Rebar inventory contradictions are not prominent. This week, rebar factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and total inventory decreased. Hot - rolled steel factory, social, and total inventories all increased, and inventory contradictions were not prominent [18][19]. Iron - related Data - This week, the daily iron - water output was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons, but it remained at a relatively high level [22].