Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 23, the capital market tightened significantly, with major repurchase rates rising, the bond market remaining weak, the convertible bond market's major indices showing mixed performance, and most convertible bond issues declining. Yields on US Treasuries across various maturities generally increased, while the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. - There were multiple important domestic and international news events, including the confirmation of the start date for Hainan Free - Trade Port's customs closure, upcoming China - US economic and trade talks, and a US - Japan trade agreement [3][6]. - Commodity prices showed different trends, with international crude oil futures prices continuing to fall and international natural gas prices turning up [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - Hainan Free - Trade Port's customs closure is set to start on December 18, 2025. The coverage of "zero - tariff" goods will expand from 1900 tariff items to about 6600, accounting for 74% of all commodity tariff items, a nearly 53 - percentage - point increase [3]. - China - US economic and trade talks will be held in Sweden from July 27 - 30, following the consensus of the two heads of state's phone call on June 5 [3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will improve the coordinated development mechanism between state - owned and private enterprises and address cut - throat competition [4]. - Bank deposit rates continued to decline in June, with medium - and long - term rates entering the "1 era", and the average 3 - month deposit rate dropping 5.5BP from the previous month [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the underwriting amount of science and technology innovation bonds reached 381.391 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 56.5%. There were 40 securities companies acting as lead underwriters for green bonds, underwriting 71 bonds (or products) worth 59.444 billion yuan [5]. - In June, the newly - filed asset - backed special plans (ABS) reached 100, with a scale of 92.341 billion yuan. The top three ABS underlying assets in terms of newly - filed scale were financial leasing receivables, accounts receivable, and small - loan receivables [5]. 3.1.2 International News - The US and Japan reached a trade agreement on July 23, with a 15% tariff rate on Japanese goods and Japan planning to invest $550 billion in the US. The US may also cooperate with Japan on LNG [6]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On July 23, WTI September crude futures fell 0.09% to $65.25 per barrel, Brent September crude futures fell 0.13% to $68.51 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 1.28% to $3399.50 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 0.42% to $3.089 per ounce [7]. 3.2 Capital Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On July 23, the central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method. With 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net capital withdrawal for the day was 369.6 billion yuan [9]. 3.2.2 Capital Rates - On July 23, due to consecutive net withdrawals by the central bank, the capital market tightened significantly, and major repurchase rates rose. For example, DR001 rose 5.66bp to 1.371%, and DR007 rose 0.85bp to 1.483% [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Bearing Bonds - Spot Bond Yield Trends: On July 23, the stock market rose, the commodity market was strong, inflation bottoming expectations were strengthened, and the capital market tightened, causing the bond market to continue weakening. By 20:00, the yield on the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250011 rose 1.40bp to 1.7060%, and the yield on the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250210 rose 0.95bp to 1.7870% [12]. - Bond Tendering Situation: Multiple bonds were tendered on July 23, with different issuance scales, winning yields, and multiples [14]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies: On July 23, no credit bond transaction prices deviated by more than 10%. - Credit Bond Events: Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum cancelled the issuance of "25 Shaanxi Yanchang MTN001 (Science and Technology Innovation Bond)"; Moody's adjusted the outlook of Li & Fung from "stable" to "negative"; Liuguang Co., Ltd.'s shareholders planned to reduce their holdings; Fujian Sunshine Group failed to disclose its semi - annual report on time [15]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - Equity and Convertible Bond Indices: On July 23, the A - share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.01%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index falling 0.37% and 0.01% respectively. The convertible bond market's major indices showed mixed performance, with most convertible bond issues declining [16]. - Convertible Bond Tracking: Longjian Co., Ltd. received approval from the CSRC to issue convertible bonds; some convertible bonds announced changes in conversion prices, early redemptions, or non - redemptions [18][24]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - US Bond Market: On July 23, yields on US Treasuries across various maturities generally increased, the 2/10 - year yield spread remained unchanged, the 5/30 - year yield spread narrowed by 1bp, and the 10 - year inflation - protected Treasury (TIPS) break - even inflation rate decreased by 2bp [20][21][22]. - European Bond Market: On July 23, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends, with Germany's rising 1bp, and the UK's rising 7bp, while France, Italy, and Spain's remained unchanged [23]. - Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued US - Dollar Bonds: As of the close on July 23, prices of Chinese - issued US - dollar bonds showed different changes [25].
国家发改委：推动整治内卷式竞争，资金面明显收敛，债市延续弱势
Dong Fang Jin Cheng·2025-07-25 09:09