政府债周报：国债净融资边际放缓-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - The core view includes basic economic data such as the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment at 2.80, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the current month at 4.80, the year - on - year growth rate of exports in the current month at 5.90, and M2 at 8.30 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 208.6 billion yuan in the 29th week (7/14 - 7/20) and 303.6 billion yuan in the 30th week (7/21 - 7/27). As of the 29th week, the cumulative amount was 8.4 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 4.5 trillion yuan, mainly due to the misalignment of special bonds for replacing implicit debts and the rapid issuance of treasury bonds [1][7]. - The sum of treasury bond net financing and new local bond issuance was 247.2 billion yuan in the 29th week and 239.4 billion yuan in the 30th week. As of the 29th week, the cumulative general deficit was 6.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 56.6% [1][7]. Treasury Bond Net Financing - Treasury bond net financing was 5.82 billion yuan in the 29th week and 1.07 billion yuan in the 30th week. As of the 29th week, the cumulative amount was 3.8 trillion yuan, with a progress of 57.5%, exceeding the same period in the past five years. The total annual treasury bond net financing is 6.66 trillion yuan. In 2025, the central deficit is 4.86 trillion yuan, with 1.8 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds arranged: 1.3 trillion yuan is ultra - long - term special treasury bonds (300 billion yuan for consumer goods trade - in), and 500 billion yuan is for supplementing the capital of state - owned large - scale banks [1][8]. Local Bond Net Financing - Local bond net financing was 150.5 billion yuan in the 29th week and 292.9 billion yuan in the 30th week. As of the 29th week, the cumulative amount was 4.6 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.8 trillion yuan [1][10]. New General Bond - New general bond issuance was 2.76 billion yuan in the 29th week and 2.33 billion yuan in the 30th week. In 2025, the local deficit is 80 billion yuan. As of the 29th week, the cumulative issuance was 49.41 billion yuan, with a progress of 61.8%, exceeding the same period last year [2][11][13]. New Special Bond - New special bond issuance was 161.4 billion yuan in the 29th week and 205.4 billion yuan in the 30th week. In 2025, the planned issuance of new special bonds is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 29th week, the cumulative issuance was 2.4 trillion yuan, with a progress of 54.3%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 71.7 billion yuan have been issued, of which 25.22 billion yuan has been issued since July, accounting for 41% of new special bonds. The 80 - billion - yuan quota may be issued by the end of the third quarter. Land reserve special bonds of 25.58 billion yuan have been issued. As of July 6, the cumulative number of disclosed projects for acquiring idle land was 4,343 parcels, with a capital scale of 489.7 billion yuan [2][15]. Special Refinancing Bond - Special refinancing bond issuance was 0 billion yuan in the 29th week and 1.19 billion yuan in the 30th week. As of the 29th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.8 trillion yuan, with a progress of 91% [2][32]. Urban Investment Bond - Urban investment bond net financing was - 1.24 billion yuan in the 29th week and is expected to be - 3.9 billion yuan in the 30th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.3 trillion yuan [2][34].