钢材、铁矿石日报：产业矛盾各异，钢矿走势分化-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated upwards with a daily increase of 2.32%, and the volume and open interest expanded. With both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory level, with few real - world contradictions. Coupled with the strong cost support from raw materials, it is expected that the rebar price will continue to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to domestic policies [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil strengthened, with a daily increase of 1.98%, and the volume and open interest expanded. Currently, both the supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, and the fundamentals have weakened again. There is a slight inventory build - up, but the overall contradiction is not significant. The strong raw materials boost market sentiment. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 1.11%. The volume increased while the open interest decreased. Currently, market sentiment has stabilized. Coupled with the suppression of high coking coal prices, the iron ore price has fallen from its high level. However, with supply being weak and demand being strong, the fundamentals of iron ore are still acceptable, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue to oscillate and consolidate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget expenditure was 1.41271 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The expenditure on social security and employment increased by 9.2% year - on - year, science and technology expenditure increased by 9.1% year - on - year, education expenditure increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and health expenditure increased by 4.3% year - on - year. The national general public budget revenue was 1.15566 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. National tax revenue was 929.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.2%, and non - tax revenue was 226.51 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7% [6]. - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - ins. The "Two New" policy system and working mechanism are continuously improving. The State Council has issued an action plan, and the National Development and Reform Commission has issued support measures and expansion policies, and established an inter - ministerial joint meeting system [7]. - In the second quarter of 2025, FMG's iron ore production was 5.44 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The annual production in fiscal year 2025 reached 201 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The shipping volume in the second quarter was 5.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. The annual shipping volume in fiscal year 2025 reached 198 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The shipping target for fiscal year 2026 is 195 - 205 million tons [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,400 yuan, 3,360 yuan, and 3,463 yuan respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,470 yuan, 3,440 yuan, and 3,514 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,130 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,140 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 70 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,260 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 784 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 748 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia was 10.40 yuan, and from Brazil was 24.18 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) was 100.01 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 104.50 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,356 | 2.32 | 3,358 | 3,288 | 2,878,137 | 344,884 | 1,998,652 | 92,300 | | Hot - rolled Coil | - | 3,507 | 1.98 | 3,508 | 3,452 | 995,111 | 142,246 | 1,554,563 | 46,781 | | Iron Ore | - | 802.5 | - 1.11 | 815.5 | 790.0 | 533,058 | 134,404 | 528,991 | - 33,844 | [11] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report presents various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil (steel mills + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventories, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventories [13][14][16]. - Charts on steel mill production conditions are also included, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [27][29][32]. 3.5后市研判 - Rebar: Supply has increased with a weekly output increase of 2.90 tons, and there is room for further increase. Demand has improved with a weekly apparent demand increase of 10.41 tons, mainly due to speculative demand. However, both supply and demand are still at low levels in recent years, and the sustainability of demand improvement is weak. With low inventory and strong raw material cost support, the rebar price is expected to continue to operate at a high level. Attention should be paid to policy changes [35]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output has decreased by 3.65 tons, and the weekly apparent demand has decreased by 8.55 tons. Although high - frequency trading is good due to speculative demand, and downstream cold - rolled production is high, the narrowing internal - external price spread and potential tariff disturbances may lead to overseas demand risks. The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [36]. - Iron Ore: The terminal consumption of iron ore has declined slightly, but the demand is still resilient due to the good profitability of steel mills. The arrival at domestic ports has decreased, and the short - term overseas supply is low. However, the shipping of overseas miners is increasing, and the domestic supply is also stable with a slight increase. With stable market sentiment and the suppression of high coking coal prices, the iron ore price has fallen from its high level. It is expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners [37].