宝城期货有色日报-20250725

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - Copper: Last night, Shanghai copper opened lower and continued to decline, with decreasing positions and strong willingness among long - position holders to close out. Today, it maintained a weak trend, with the main contract price oscillating above 79,200 yuan. After the Asian session yesterday, the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors generally declined, and the sharp drop in gold may affect short - term copper prices. On the industrial level, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory on Thursday was 121,800 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons compared to Monday. In the short term, copper prices have fallen after a rally, with strong resistance at $10,000 for LME copper and 80,000 yuan for Shanghai copper [5]. - Aluminum: Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated, with decreasing positions. After the Asian session yesterday, the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors generally declined, but aluminum was relatively resistant. Favorable domestic macro - conditions supported aluminum prices. On the industrial level, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory on Thursday was 494,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons compared to Monday. In the short term, there are macro - level positives and industrial - level negatives; attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - Nickel: Today, Shanghai nickel oscillated strongly, with the main contract price breaking through the 124,000 - yuan mark. After the Asian session yesterday, the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors generally declined, but nickel was relatively resistant. On the industrial level, the trading atmosphere in the downstream stainless - steel market improved, which was favorable for nickel prices in the short term. Technically, nickel prices increased in volume and broke through the high point in early July, showing strong upward momentum; attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - Copper: On July 25, SMM data showed that the average spot premium in Shandong was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton. Currently in the off - season, weak demand and rising copper prices have further dampened downstream purchasing enthusiasm, with market transactions mainly for rigid demand. Shandong smelters have low inventories, and holders are reluctant to significantly lower premiums. This week, the region continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand, with low market trading activity [9]. - Aluminum: On July 25, SMM reported that Rio Tinto achieved a record bauxite production in Q2. The company produced 15,644,000 tons of bauxite in Q2, a 6% increase from Q1, and expects full - year production to be at the upper end of the guidance range. Recycled aluminum production also increased to 74,000 tons, an 11% increase from Q1. However, bauxite production decreased by 6% from Q1, partly due to equipment shutdown and maintenance at the Yarwun refinery in Queensland, Australia. On July 24, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 494,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from the 17th and 14,000 tons from the 21st [10]. - Nickel: On July 25, Mysteel reported that the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,000 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,630 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,180 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +3,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 127,230 yuan/ton; and for nickel beans, it was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,730 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - Copper: Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, Shanghai copper month - spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - Aluminum: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [25][31][33]. - Nickel: Charts include nickel basis, nickel month - spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [38][44][46].