冠通研究：行情震荡

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The current fundamentals of the urea market remain loose, with downstream demand providing rigid support. Although the anti - involution sentiment has slightly cooled, the market still shows resilience. In the short term, it is advisable to adopt a cautious wait - and - see approach [1] Summary by Section Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened high and closed higher, with a gain of over 1% at the end of the session. However, upstream factory quotes declined, and the spot market sentiment has subsided. This week, more upstream urea factories are under maintenance, and the daily urea production has remained below 200,000 tons. The supply - demand situation remains loose. Domestic demand is weak, and the downstream trading sentiment is cold. As it gradually enters the agricultural demand gap period, the key to future demand support lies in the raw material procurement of compound fertilizer factories in the industrial sector. In the short term, the procurement sentiment during the pre - sale period of autumn fertilizers is cautious, and demand is elastic. As the operating load continues to rise, the urea market is expected to receive rigid demand support. Due to the weakening domestic demand, although there is support from export cargo collection, the de - stocking rate of urea factory inventories has slowed down, and the inventories in the main delivery areas have increased, indicating weak terminal demand [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1,786 yuan/ton, rose throughout the session, and finally closed at 1,803 yuan/ton, a gain of 1.18%. The trading volume was 171,609 lots, a decrease of 2,182 lots. Among the top 20 main trading seats, long positions decreased by 378 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,348 lots. Haitong Futures' net long positions increased by 774 lots, and Yong'an Futures' net long positions decreased by 855 lots. Galaxy Futures' net short positions increased by 2,467 lots, and Dongzheng Futures' net short positions decreased by 2,709 lots [2] Spot - Upstream factory quotes declined. Although the futures market continued to rise, the spot market sentiment has subsided. The ex - factory prices of small - granular urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei have been adjusted down to 1,730 - 1,780 yuan/ton [5] Warehouse Receipts - On July 25, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 2,523, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Basis - The mainstream spot market quotes declined, while the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong Province, the basis for the September contract weakened compared to the previous trading day, reaching 7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton [9] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on July 25, 2025, the national daily urea production was 197,500 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.09% [12]