本轮黑色系商品上涨逻辑梳理与未来走势研判：本轮“反内卷”行情还能持续多久？-20250725

Report Title - "How Long Can the Current 'Anti-Involution' Market Last? - Analysis of the Rising Logic and Future Trends of Black Series Commodities" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Since the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting arranged "anti-involution" at the beginning of July, black series commodities have risen significantly. The rise has both general and special characteristics, and the price increase is mainly due to speculating on expectations in advance, which is fundamentally different from the price increase in 2016 [65]. - Whether downstream demand can cooperate after August this year is an important variable to test the "anti-involution" market. Currently, steel and hot metal production remain high, but the terminal apparent demand in the spot market is average, and there is a risk of demand falling short of expectations during the peak season [65]. - From past patterns, in August - October, which is the consumption peak season, if demand is less than expected or the implementation of "anti-involution" policies is weaker than expected, futures prices may experience a deep adjustment [65]. - The current market for some commodities has deviated from fundamental and supply - demand factors and become a situation of capital gaming. There may be a short - term peak, but if "anti-involution" policies continue to advance, the market is expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillating trend in the medium term [65]. - The screw - ore ratio is at a low level, and the strategy of going long on the screw - ore ratio has a high win - rate and odds, which is worth attention [65] Summary According to the Directory 1. General and Special Characteristics of the Rise of Black Series Commodities General Characteristics - The seasonality of rebar shows "not weak in the off - season and not strong in the peak season". May, August, and September have a high probability of decline, while December, January, and July have a high probability of rise. The seasonal pattern in 2025 is expected to be similar to that in 2014, with a limited rebound from June - July, greater downward pressure from August - October, and a certain rebound at the end of the year [8]. - The overall market maintains a weak oscillation, and there is no obvious long - term trend. It is more appropriate to adopt a medium - term band trading strategy. In July, go long on dips; from August - November, go short on rallies; after November, wait for opportunities to go long on dips in the medium term. In terms of arbitrage, going long on the screw - ore ratio or coil - ore ratio has an advantage in win - rate and odds [10]. Special Characteristics - In June, the market was overly bearish, and prices had fully reflected the consensus expectation, creating the possibility of a rise. The Central Financial and Economic Commission's Sixth Meeting on July 1st ignited the price increase, combined with subsequent central city work meetings and optimistic expectations for the Politburo meeting [14]. - Top - level attention to "anti - involution" has led various ministries to introduce relevant policies, covering industries such as photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, platform enterprises, and ten industries with over - capacity like steel, coal, chemical, building materials, and non - ferrous metals [15][17]. - Compared with the 2015 supply - side reform, the current "anti - involution" is still in the policy - introduction stage, with obvious speculation on expectations but no obvious supply contraction. Due to trade wars and the downturn in the domestic real estate market, it is difficult to see demand expansion in the long term. Whether it can reverse the bearish situation of black and chemical commodities depends on the improvement of terminal demand [19]. 2. Recent Data Interpretation of Steel Price and Basis - The rebar's spot and futures prices have rebounded, and the basis has converged from about 200 at the peak to about 86 [20][23]. - The hot - rolled coil basis has turned negative, with the basis of the 01 and 05 contracts falling from about 140 at the peak to negative values [24][29]. Production - The decline in production is mainly due to low prices and poor expectations in June. If "anti - involution" is not fully implemented and steel mills' profitability improves and the market enters the peak season, production may increase [32]. - According to the Steel Association, pig iron production has rebounded, and crude steel production has decreased slightly year - on - year. Building material production has decreased significantly, while plate production has increased slightly, and the total production has decreased slightly. Independent electric arc furnace production has decreased but is likely to rebound in the future [33][36][39]. Demand - The apparent demand for building materials is poor, while that for plates is good, and the overall demand is similar to the same period last year. Exports have increased overall, but the growth rate has slowed down, mainly driven by the rapid growth of billet exports. However, with the implementation of US tariffs, the export growth rate of billets and steel is likely to decline [42][45][47]. Profit - Recently, the prices of coking coal and coke have rebounded rapidly, and iron ore prices have also risen, while the increase in finished product prices is relatively small, resulting in a decline in steel mills' gross profit. The larger increase in furnace charge varieties indicates that measures such as production restrictions and "anti - involution" have little impact on the steel production process for now [49]. Iron Ore and Iron Water - Iron ore inventory decline has slowed down, and the proportion of trade ore is relatively high. The 05 contract's screw - ore ratio is near historical extremes, with limited room for further decline. Due to the impact of "anti - involution" on coking coal and coke prices and the relatively stable supply of iron ore, the screw - ore ratio has a large potential for increase [55][59][62]. - Iron water production remains at a high level. The peak production this year was close to 2.5 million tons, setting a record for the same period. Although the proportion of profitable steel mills is not high, it has been rising steadily, which is an important reason for the high - level iron water production. Generally, iron water production experiences a seasonal decline from July - August, and it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation recently [50][52]. 3. Market Outlook - The current "anti - involution" market is a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Whether it can continue depends on the improvement of downstream demand. There is a risk of a short - term peak, but if policies continue to advance, the market is expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillating trend in the medium term. The screw - ore ratio strategy is worth attention [65]