玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current situation is characterized by weak reality and strong expectations, with policy expectations yet to be disproven, and there is a contradiction between macro - expectations and industrial logic [2] - Bullish factors include anti - involution expectations, rising coal costs, commodity resonance, and the upward movement of the futures market stimulating speculative demand and driving a positive feedback between futures and spot prices [2] - Bearish factors are that the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have not improved [2] - Policy expectations persist, and the futures market remains strong. Attention should be paid to the amplitude of the resonance between the macro and industrial sectors and wait for the next policy guidance [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Glass and Soda Ash Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for glass is in the range of 1200 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 97.8%. The monthly price forecast for soda ash is in the range of 1200 - 1600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.6% [1] Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies Glass - Inventory Management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling glass prices, short glass futures (FG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 1500 and sell call options (FG509C1500) with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 60 to lock in profits and reduce costs. When the procurement inventory is low and there are concerns about rising glass prices, buy glass futures (FG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 1200 and sell put options (FG509P1200) with a 50% hedging ratio at 30 - 50 to lock in procurement costs [1] Soda Ash - Inventory Management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling soda ash prices, short soda ash futures (SA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 1600 and sell call options (SA509C1600) with a 50% hedging ratio at 40 - 60. When the procurement inventory is low and there are concerns about rising soda ash prices, buy soda ash futures (SA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 1200 - 1250 and sell put options (SA509P1300) with a 50% hedging ratio at 30 - 50 [1] Glass Futures Prices and Spreads - On July 25, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1461, 1362, and 1426 respectively, with daily increases of 1.67%, 4.21%, and 1.71%. The spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) were 99, - 64, and - 35 respectively, with the (5 - 9) spread decreasing by 31 and the (9 - 1) spread increasing by 31 [2] Glass Spot Prices - On July 25, 2025, the average price of glass in Shahe was 1289.4, an increase of 52.6 from the previous day. The prices in different regions also showed varying degrees of increase, such as a 30 increase in North China and a 10 increase in South China [5] Soda Ash Futures Prices and Spreads - On July 25, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1539, 1440, and 1516 respectively, with daily increases of 1.38%, 2.27%, and 2.09%. The spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) were 99, - 76, and - 23 respectively, with varying degrees of change [6] Soda Ash Spot Prices - On July 25, 2025, the prices of heavy soda ash and light soda ash in different regions all increased to varying degrees, such as a 50 increase in North China and a 70 increase in East China [7] Seasonal Data - There are seasonal data on the daily output of float glass in China, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in China, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash in China, and the loss volume of soda ash in China, as well as the seasonal data of the basis of glass and soda ash contracts in different regions and the seasonal data of the daily sales - to - production ratio of glass in different regions [8][23][28]