沥青周报：跟随成本端窄幅波动-20250725

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week's view: Affected by the capital side and rainfall, asphalt demand was mainly for immediate needs, with little chance of exceeding expectations. Currently, refinery operations are average, some Sinopec refineries have lowered prices, and most actual market transactions are for low - priced supplies. It was expected that asphalt prices would fluctuate overall, and influenced by the cost side, the center might be slightly stronger, but the upside potential was limited [7]. - This week's price movement: This week, asphalt prices fluctuated within a narrow range, generally following the trend of crude oil on the cost side [7]. - This week's industry data: This week, refinery supply decreased while demand increased. After the reduction of refinery inventories, they were at a low level compared to the same period. The reduction rate of social inventories was slow. After entering the peak season, the reduction rate of social inventories would restrict the upside space of asphalt prices [7]. - This week's view: The anti - involution trend has little impact on the cost - side crude oil. Asphalt demand remains mainly for immediate needs and is restricted by capital, so it is difficult to exceed expectations. Weekly refinery operations decreased, but a slight rebound is expected next week. Although refinery inventories are currently at a low level, the continuous lack of reduction in social inventories may restrict the overall upside space. It is expected that asphalt prices will fluctuate overall, mainly following the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoints - Last week's prediction was that asphalt would be range - bound with a slightly upward - biased center due to cost, but limited upside. This week, asphalt followed crude oil in a narrow - range fluctuation. Current industry data shows reduced supply and increased demand at refineries, low refinery inventories, and slow - moving social inventories. The current view is that asphalt will continue to fluctuate following the cost side, with upside limited by non - declining social inventories [7]. 3.2 Data Overview 3.2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Spreads, and Basis - Graphs present asphalt futures trends, including the price of the main contract, spreads between September and December contracts, and basis in East China and Shandong regions, with data sourced from Wind and Steel Union Data [10][11]. 3.2.2 Asphalt Supply - Graphs show asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate, with data from Steel Union Data [13][14]. 3.2.3 Asphalt Demand - Graphs display asphalt shipment volumes, apparent consumption, paver sales, and the product of paver sales and apparent asphalt consumption, using data from Steel Union Data [16][17]. 3.2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports - Graphs illustrate asphalt import and export volumes, as well as import windows in East and South China, with data from Steel Union Data [19][20]. 3.2.5 Asphalt Inventory - Graphs show refinery inventories, social inventories, futures inventories, and monthly futures delivery volumes, with data from Steel Union Data [22][23]. 3.2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Graphs present the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in Shandong, with data from Steel Union Data [25][26]. 3.2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Graphs show the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in East China, with data from Steel Union Data [28][29]. 3.2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Graphs display the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in South China, with data from Steel Union Data [31][32]. 3.2.9 Refinery Maintenance - A table lists refineries with maintenance, including the production enterprise, maintenance device, capacity, start time, and end time of maintenance. The total annual capacity of these refineries is 2016 tons, and the maintenance loss is 641,500 tons [33].