【冠通研究】：PVC：震荡上行

Report Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating Upward" for the PVC industry [1] Core Viewpoint - Although the PVC industry currently faces challenges such as high inventory, weak demand in the real - estate market, and new production capacity coming online, with the upcoming release of a new round of ten key industries' stable - growth work plans and coal price increases, the market sentiment has improved. It is expected that PVC will oscillate strongly in the near term, and the report suggests going long on dips or conducting a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price has dropped by 25 yuan/ton in some areas. The PVC operating rate has increased by 0.62 percentage points to 77.59%, reaching a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate is still low compared to previous years, and procurement is cautious. India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025, and Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, has raised its July quotation by 10 - 25 US dollars/ton. Recent export orders are average, but India's delay in announcing anti - dumping duties until September 25 may stimulate Chinese PVC exports. Social inventory continues to increase and is still high. From January to June 2025, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and the year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large. The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has continued to decline and is at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has recovered, and the PVC operating rate increased last week. New production capacities of Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua have been in trial production, and the support of calcium carbide prices is weak. Before the demand is substantially improved, PVC faces great pressure. However, with the upcoming release of relevant policies and coal price increases, the market sentiment has improved. It is recommended to go long on dips or conduct a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the PVC2509 contract increased in position and oscillated upward, with a minimum price of 5226 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 5391 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 5373 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, a rise of 3.19%. The position increased by 28,479 lots to 860,317 lots [2] Basis - On July 25, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 5075 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the V2509 contract futures was 5373 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 298 yuan/ton, weakening by 70 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, some devices such as Erdos Chlor - Alkali and Yidongdongxing have entered maintenance, and the PVC operating rate has decreased by 0.80 percentage points to 76.79%, but it is still at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. In July, the 400,000 - ton/year Tianjin Bohua and 500,000 - ton/year Wanhua Chemical have been in trial production. On the demand side, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to June 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 466.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The commercial housing sales area was 458.51 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%; the residential sales area decreased by 3.7%. The commercial housing sales volume was 442.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.5%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 3.7%. The new construction area of houses was 303.64 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0%; the new construction area of residential houses was 222.88 million square meters, a decrease of 19.6%. The construction area of real - estate development enterprises' houses was 6.33321 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%. The completion area of houses was 225.67 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8%; the completion area of residential houses was 162.66 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.5%. The overall improvement of the real - estate market still takes time [4] Inventory - As of the week of July 20, the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 5.27% week - on - week and was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. As of the week of July 24, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.97% week - on - week to 683,400 tons, 28.23% less than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and was still high [5]