宏观经济周报：“反内卷”情绪持续发酵-20250725

Group 1: Macro Economic Environment - The US Markit Manufacturing PMI preliminary value fell below expectations, reaching a new low since December 2024, due to ongoing tariff concerns and rising inflation pressures[1] - The service sector outlook improved, leading to a composite PMI reaching a new high since the beginning of the year[1] - Initial jobless claims in the US dropped to a three-month low, indicating a stable employment market[1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Environment - The launch of the Yaxia Hydropower Project and the "anti-involution" policy have boosted market sentiment and expectations for inflation stabilization[2] - The upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of July is a key indicator for future policy directions, particularly regarding the "anti-involution" strategy[2] - Real estate transactions weakened, while the wholesale price index for agricultural products showed fluctuations[2] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Steel prices have rebounded, while cement prices have decreased[2] - Prices for coking coal and coke have significantly increased, with most non-ferrous metal prices rising and gold prices slightly rebounding[2] - Crude oil prices have declined, reflecting broader commodity market trends[2]