低位波动中的破局之道：2025年中期信用债展望与策略建议

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the credit bond issuance is expected to continue expanding, with the issuance scale possibly reaching its peak in the third quarter. The issuance and net financing scale of urban investment bonds may further shrink, while the expansion of industrial bonds and science - and technology innovation bonds will dominate the supply. The yield of the bond market may continue the downward trend, and the credit spread may still have room for compression. Investors are advised to dig into the investment value of high - grade credit bonds, pay attention to market fluctuations, and focus on investment opportunities in the consumption field, stable industries, and science - and technology innovation bond field [5][6][48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First - half Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.1.1 Primary Market - Overall issuance situation: The total issuance of credit bonds increased moderately, with a net financing scale of 971.083 billion yuan, showing a mild recovery. The issuance interest rate first rose and then fell, remaining at a low level. The term structure continued to optimize, with the proportion of medium - and long - term varieties increasing. The issuance scale of medium - term notes continued to expand, and the issuance scale of corporate bonds exceeded that of ultra - short - term financing for the first time [5][7][12]. - Industry differences: The issuance of industrial bonds expanded significantly, with a scale of 4.26 trillion yuan and a net financing scale of 1.11 trillion yuan. Urban investment bonds had a net outflow of 120.004 billion yuan, and the net outflow situation was obvious from March to June [17]. - Innovative varieties: The issuance scale of innovative varieties of credit bonds expanded significantly, reaching 1.090689 trillion yuan. The issuance scale of science - and technology innovation bonds increased explosively, reaching 879.619 billion yuan, and the scale of green - labeled bonds also continued to expand [24]. - Issuer structure: The credit bond financing still showed obvious subject stratification. Central and state - owned enterprises dominated, while the private enterprise bond financing achieved marginal improvement. The issuance scale of private enterprise credit bonds was 346.661 billion yuan, with a net financing of 337.27 billion yuan [27][28]. 3.1.2 Secondary Market - Trading activity: The trading activity of credit bonds declined, and the trading scale of short - term financing bonds decreased significantly. The total trading volume of credit bonds in the secondary market decreased by 8.89% compared with last year to 27.64 trillion yuan [36]. - Yield trend: The bond market yield first fluctuated and then stabilized. The "asset shortage" pattern generally continued. The yield of treasury bonds and medium - and short - term notes mostly increased slightly compared with the beginning of the year [38][40]. - Credit spread: The credit spread mostly narrowed. The credit spread of medium - and short - term notes generally narrowed by 2 - 68bp, and most of the inter - grade spreads also narrowed [43]. - Industry spread: The spreads of all industries narrowed comprehensively. The real estate industry still had the highest spread, but it narrowed compared with the first quarter. The spreads of industries such as construction and automobiles narrowed significantly [45][46]. 3.2 Outlook and Strategy Suggestions for the Second Half of 2025 3.2.1 Financing Outlook - The credit bond issuance is expected to continue expanding, and the issuance scale may reach its peak in the third quarter. The issuance scale for the whole year is predicted to be about 16.3 - 16.7 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of about 3% - 6%. The credit spread may reach its lowest point in the third quarter, but there is a possibility of an "up - after - down" reversal in interest rates in the fourth quarter [48][49]. 3.2.2 Interest Rate Trend - The bond market yield may continue the downward trend. The 10 - year treasury bond yield may operate in the range of 1.4% - 1.7%. The credit spread of credit bonds may still have room for compression [51][53]. 3.2.3 Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to further explore the investment value of high - grade credit bonds, screen individual bonds with good credit quality and room for spread compression, and pay attention to market fluctuations for trading gains. Specific investment fields include the consumption field, stable industries, and science - and technology innovation bond fields [54][55].