菜籽类市场周报：中澳贸易有望恢复，菜油表现弱于豆棕-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, short - term participation is recommended, and it has shown weaker performance than soybean and palm oil recently due to the potential resumption of China - Australia trade. The current growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage, and factors such as weather, trade, and domestic supply and demand affect its price [8][9]. - For rapeseed meal, short - term participation is also recommended, and attention should be paid to China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations. The price of rapeseed meal fluctuates greatly in the short term, influenced by factors like US soybean conditions, domestic supply and demand, and trade agreements [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Short - term participation [8] - Market Review: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the 09 contract was 9457 yuan/ton, a decrease of 129 yuan/ton from the previous week [9] - Market Outlook: Canadian rapeseed growth is weather - sensitive. The potential resumption of China - Australia rapeseed trade, the situation of palm oil, and domestic supply - demand conditions all impact the price. Although there are some bearish factors, the reduction in supply pressure and oil mill output also provide support [9] Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Short - term participation, focus on China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations [11] - Market Review: This week, rapeseed meal futures rose first and then fell. The closing price of the 09 contract was 2675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from the previous week [12] - Market Outlook: US soybean conditions, domestic supply - demand, and trade agreements affect the price. Although there are bearish factors, the reduction in short - term supply and seasonal demand increase provide support, while also facing substitution pressure [12] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a total position of 210,783 lots, a decrease of 36,060 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures rose first and then fell, with a total position of 483,508 lots, a decrease of 54,942 lots from the previous week [17] - The net long positions of the top 20 in rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal futures both decreased this week [23] Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9540 yuan/ton, showing a decline from last week. The basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price was + 83 yuan/ton [38] - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2520 yuan/ton, slightly lower than last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price was - 155 yuan/ton [44] Spread and Ratio - The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was + 56 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal was + 270 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [50] - The ratio of the 09 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.535, and the ratio of the average spot prices was 3.786 [53] - The 09 contract spread of rapeseed - soybean oil was 1313 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed - palm oil was 521 yuan/ton, both narrowing this week [62] - The 09 contract spread of soybean - rapeseed meal was 346 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of Thursday was 290 yuan/ton [68] 3.3. Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - Supply: As of July 18, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 200,000 tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in June, July, and August 2025 were 260,000, 130,000, and 485,000 tons respectively. The import rapeseed spot crushing profit was + 384 yuan/ton as of July 24. The crushing volume of rapeseed in coastal main oil mills in the 29th week of 2025 was 53,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 12.96%. In June 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 184,500 tons, a significant year - on - year and month - on - month decrease [74][78][82][86] Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the end of the 29th week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 812,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last week. In June 2025, the import volume of rapeseed oil was 150,300 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase [90] - Demand: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.404 million tons, and as of May 31, the catering revenue was 457.82 billion yuan. As of the end of the 29th week of 2025, the contract volume of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 128,000 tons, a decrease of 7000 tons from last week [94][98] Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the end of the 29th week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 11,000 tons, an increase of 7000 tons from last week. In June 2025, the import volume of rapeseed meal was 270,300 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase [102][106] - Demand: As of May 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2.7621 million tons [110] 3.4. Options Market Analysis - As of July 25, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 23.32%, a 2.63% increase from last week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [113]