宏观策略周报：7月份LPR“按兵不动”，雅江水电工程推动多领域发展-20250725

Investment Highlights - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced construction with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, which is expected to become a significant engine for economic growth and promote development across multiple sectors [10][11][12] - The project will involve the construction of five stepped power stations, primarily focusing on power transmission outside the region while also catering to local consumption needs [10][11] - The project is anticipated to positively impact the economy over a long-term horizon, with an expected contribution of around 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth [12] Market Overview - The domestic securities market saw most major indices rise, with the STAR 50 index showing the largest increase of 4.6% [3][24] - The construction materials sector experienced the highest growth among the Shenwan first-level industries, with an increase of 8.2% [27] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project is expected to drive demand for engineering machinery, particularly in high-altitude environments where electric and unmanned machinery may become mainstream due to operational efficiency requirements [20][21] Investment Recommendations - Focus on new productive forces, particularly in sectors such as artificial intelligence, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, and controllable nuclear fusion, which are expected to yield excess returns under a backdrop of liquidity easing [33] - Emphasize consumer spending to expand domestic effective demand, with potential investment opportunities in new consumption, home appliances, and automotive sectors [33] - Consider high-dividend assets for stable long-term returns [33] - Explore long-term investment opportunities in gold as a safe-haven asset amid increasing geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties [33]