Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, indicating that the market is currently influenced by sentiment, with most products showing a short - term bullish trend but facing different fundamental challenges. The overall sentiment is expected to cool down, and each product's trading strategy is based on its specific fundamentals and technical analysis [1][2]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Logic: Currently in the consumption peak season, low inventory and strong demand provide short - term support. However, US crude oil processing volume and refinery utilization have peaked and declined, and the pressure of OPEC+ production increase will gradually materialize in the medium term [4][5]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. It closed above the 510 level today, and the short - term is expected to oscillate. The strategy is to stop loss on short positions and then wait and see [5]. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: The supply and operation are at a high level compared to the same period, and there is new production capacity to be put into operation. Demand has not improved, and the inventory pressure is high. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [8]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It increased in volume and price today, and the short - term support level has moved up to 7485. Wait for the short - term support to be broken [8]. Rubber - Logic: Rainfall and typhoon speculation in Hainan's production area have made the spot price strong in the short term, and the warm macro - sentiment of commodities has supported the rubber price. However, the pattern of increased supply and weak demand in the medium term remains unchanged. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [12]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It continued to rise today, testing the 15300 pressure level. The short - term support is at 15320. Wait for the support to be broken for short - selling opportunities [12]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The fundamentals are still poor. The tire inventory is high, the semi - steel tire operating rate is low on the demand side, and the high inventory of synthetic rubber is difficult to reduce due to high production on the supply side. There is also downward pressure on the cost side due to the commissioning of butadiene plants in the second half of the year. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [17]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It increased in volume and price today, and the short - term support is at 12150. Wait for the support to be broken for short - selling opportunities [17]. PX - Logic: The cost of crude oil is still weak. The summer demand is weak, the polyester production has decreased, the demand expectation is pessimistic, and the supply has recovered. The short - term fundamentals are weak. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It increased in volume and price today, and the short - term support is at 6940. Wait and see [20]. PTA - Logic: The cost of crude oil is still weak. The summer demand is weak, the polyester production has decreased, the demand expectation is pessimistic, and the supply is at a medium level. The short - term fundamentals are weak. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [22]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure was declining but turned around today after rising above the 4850 pressure level. The strategy is to stop loss on short positions [22]. PP - Logic: The cost of crude oil is still weak. There are plans to put new plants into operation from July to August, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The downstream operating rate is low, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [24]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It decreased in volume and increased in price today, remaining strong. The short - term support is at 7130. Wait and see [24]. Methanol - Logic: The supply - side operation rate has declined but is still at a high level compared to the same period. The downstream demand is average, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The fundamentals are weak. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled down today, and it did not follow the rise of coking coal, which is noteworthy [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is declining/oscillating, and the hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It increased in volume and price today, and the short - term support is at 2455. Wait and see [28]. PVC - Logic: The short - term strong sentiment of coal has pushed up the production cost of chlor - alkali, providing short - term support for the PVC price. The demand in the fundamentals is still weak, and the inventory has continued to accumulate under high - level supply operation. The fundamentals are still weak. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is rising, and the hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It increased in volume and price today, and the short - term support has moved up to 5255. Wait and see for now [30]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The port inventory is at a historical low, and it is strong in the short term under the recent market sentiment. Pay attention to the time when the inventory turns to accumulation under the weak supply - demand expectation. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It increased in volume and price today, and the short - term support is at 4440. Wait and see [32]. Plastic - Logic: The operating rates of both the production facilities and downstream industries are at a low level compared to the same period. However, the previously shut - down facilities will gradually resume operation, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. The medium - term supply - demand expectation is weak. The market's bullish sentiment is expected to cool down [35]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level mid - term structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is rising. It decreased in volume and increased in price today, and the short - term support is at 7425. Wait and see [35].
情绪加持，能化偏强
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-07-25 12:32