基差方向周度预测-20250725

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - This week, there were many positive news and hotspots, and the market responded actively摆脱过去借利多高开低走的惯性, with a stronger risk preference. A-shares, except for the banking sector, all recorded certain gains. Overseas, the progress of tariff negotiations between the US and its trading partners accelerated, reducing global uncertainties and further boosting market risk appetite. The A-share trading volume increased, and margin trading funds continued to flow in. The mid-cap index outperformed this week, and all broad-based indexes had achieved five consecutive weekly gains. From a futures perspective, the marginal long and short forces were basically balanced, and the factors suppressing risk preference were few. The stock index futures showed a characteristic of rising with the market but not falling, indicating an optimistic sentiment in the futures market. The basis of IH and IF weakened compared to last week, while the discounts of IC and IM converged compared to last week, still at historically low levels [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Review - There were many positive news and hotspots this week, and the market showed a buying atmosphere at low levels. The "anti-involution" market spread, and A-shares, except for the banking sector, all rose. Overseas, the US tariff policies with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines were implemented, and the third round of China-US trade negotiations was to be held next week. The A-share trading volume exceeded 1.9 trillion for the first time in five months, and margin trading funds continued to flow in. The mid-cap index outperformed, and all broad-based indexes had five consecutive weekly gains. In the futures market, the marginal long and short forces were balanced, and the stock index futures showed an optimistic sentiment. The basis of IH and IF weakened, and the discounts of IC and IM converged [2] This Week's Prediction Conclusion - The model's judgment on the movement direction of the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM next week is: strengthening, weakening, weakening, strengthening respectively [3] Recent Prediction Conclusion - The document provides the comparison data of the real basis change and the predicted basis change of IH, IF, IC, and IM, but no specific conclusion is summarized [4][5]