冠通期货热点评论：重大会议临近，警惕“反内卷行情”的调整风险

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report Since July, the "anti - involution" market has been the main macro - logical line in the market. With the approaching of the Political Bureau meeting, investors need to be vigilant about the adjustment risks of the "anti - involution" market. Although there are expectations of a new round of supply - side reform, market differences are more prominent due to concerns about the global economic slowdown and the difficulty of strong demand - boosting policies during the economic transformation period. Additionally, the repeated Sino - US tariff negotiations in early August may affect the capital market [1][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Event - Since July, the "anti - involution" market has dominated the market. The A - share market has approached 3600 points, and commodities show a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, with hot spots constantly spreading. However, recent market fluctuations have been intense, and some varieties have seen excessive increases [1]. Market Analysis - The current commodity market started at the end of June and early July, based on low - valued absolute prices and driven by the "anti - involution" concept, potentially evolving into a new round of supply - side reform market. The start of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project and the upcoming release of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's ten - industry stable - growth plan have strengthened the market's policy expectations [2]. - There are three main investment opportunity lines from supply shocks in the second half of the year: "anti - involution" supply - side reform, supply disruptions caused by Middle East geopolitical conflicts, and abnormal weather. But due to weak global demand, the upward trend will be a pulsed, phased, and structural market [2]. Market Characteristics - New energy varieties lead the way, with polysilicon and lithium carbonate taking turns to drive the market [2]. - The black building materials sector acts as the rear guard. Core varieties such as coking coal and glass have seen excessive increases and rapid growth rates. For example, from June 2025 to the present, coking coal has increased by 68.58%, and glass by 35.27% [2][5]. - The hot - spot varieties rotate and spread rapidly, from new - energy non - ferrous metals to black building materials, and then to lithium carbonate, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. The leading varieties, coking coal and glass, have significantly higher increases and growth rates than historical markets [6]. Risks and Suggestions - Multiple exchanges have issued risk alerts due to the sharp fluctuations in the commodity market and excessive increases in some varieties. As the important meeting approaches, policy games will face real - world tests. The repeated Sino - US tariff negotiations in early August may also impact the capital market. Investors should be vigilant about the adjustment risks of the "anti - involution" market [9].