有色金属日报-20250725

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a short - term trend, with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: It has different ratings in the table, but generally the market situation is complex, and ratings seem inconsistent in the given table [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a short - term trend, with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Zinc: The rating in the table is not clearly interpretable, but the market is cautious and the overall suggestion is for a short - selling strategy [1][4] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a short - term trend, with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Carbonate Lithium: The rating in the table is not clearly interpretable, but the short - term trading strategy is to buy on dips [1][9] - Industrial Silicon: The rating is not clearly interpretable, and the price is expected to be volatile [1][10] - Polysilicon: The rating is not clearly interpretable, and short - selling is not recommended [1][11] 2. Core Views - The "anti - involution" theme in the industrial products market has made the trading sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market cautious, and the market is affected by both macro factors and fundamental supply - demand relationships [2][4] - Each non - ferrous metal has its own supply - demand situation and price trends, and investors should make corresponding trading decisions based on different metal characteristics [2][3][4] 3. Summaries by Metal Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper closed with a negative trend. The current copper price is 79,450 yuan, and the Shanghai premium is 125 yuan. The trading sentiment is cautious, and it is believed that there is strong resistance at the integer level above the copper price. With the strong service PMI in the US and Europe and the change in German manufacturing momentum, the US manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5 in July. It is recommended to hold short positions with a light position [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum has a narrow - range fluctuation, and the East China spot premium is 10 yuan. The aluminum ingot social inventory has been gradually increasing, and the demand has declined but not exceeded the seasonal level. Shanghai aluminum is in a short - term high - level shock, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum, with weak demand but tight scrap aluminum supply and negative industry profits, which is more supportive compared to the aluminum price. Alumina rose and then fell, with high - level fluctuations. The northern spot transaction this week was close to 3,300 yuan, and the warehouse receipt inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is extremely low. After the futures premium, it will attract the inflow of warehouse receipts. The alumina industry has a low proportion of old - fashioned production capacity, and the current operating capacity is in a relatively over - supplied state. Be vigilant against the callback risk after the price rise driven by policy expectations [3] Zinc - The market sentiment is volatile due to the difficult - to - distinguish true and false news around the "anti - involution" theme. The zinc market funds are cautious, and long - position holders are reducing their positions at high levels. The 23,000 - yuan integer level of Shanghai zinc is under pressure, and the weighted position has dropped to 233,000 lots. After the fermentation of macro and capital emotions, the market will return to the fundamental logic. The supply of zinc ore has increased as expected, new smelter production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is expected to increase, while the consumption has not improved significantly. The general direction is to short on rebounds. In the third quarter, the policy is relatively optimistic, and the high - level range of Shanghai zinc is expected to be between 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities [4] Lead - The lead price is at a low level. Recycled lead holders are reluctant to sell, and the SMM refined - scrap lead price is the same. The average price of 1 lead has a real - time discount of 135 yuan/ton to the 08 contract. Downstream buyers prefer to purchase low - price factory - picked lead from smelters and primary lead. The SMM lead inventory has slowly increased to 71,400 tons. The spot import window is closed, the raw material supply is tight, and with cost support, Shanghai lead seems to have limited room to fall. The peak - season demand is slow to materialize, affected by tariffs and pre - consumption. However, funds are gradually increasing their positions, and the funds deposited in Shanghai lead are 1.6 billion yuan. Be vigilant against the unilateral market after the end of fund accumulation. Try to go long with a light position on dips, and hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,800 yuan/ton [6] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel has risen in a volatile manner, and the market trading is active. Under the guidance of the "anti - involution" theme, certain trading strategies are targeting short - crowded varieties. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,000 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 100 yuan. The price support from the upstream has significantly weakened recently. In terms of inventory, the nickel - iron inventory has decreased by 4,300 tons to 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has increased by 1,000 tons to 40,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 8,000 tons to 983,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Shanghai nickel is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [7] Tin - Shanghai tin has reduced its positions and recovered the decline below 270,000 yuan. Overnight, LME tin encountered resistance and closed with a negative trend below $35,000. Above 270,000 yuan, Shanghai tin is at a relatively high level. This week, the low LME inventory and the expanding spot premium have driven the price increase. The market is also concerned about the flood situation in the Wa State of Myanmar and the annual maintenance time of leading enterprises. The medium - to - long - term trend is not optimistic, and holders of short positions at the previous high level can appropriately reduce their positions for risk control [8] Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures price has reached the daily limit, and the market trading is active. A large amount of hot money has flowed into the market. The main contradiction in the market is the large number of short - hedging and investment positions concentrated around 77,000 yuan, which will face serious stop - loss pressure. The total market inventory has continued to rise to the recent high of 143,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 600 tons to 58,000 tons, the downstream inventory has slightly increased by 500 tons to 41,000 tons, and traders have continued to replenish their stocks by 1,880 tons to 43,000 tons. Traders have a positive attitude, and the spot bottom - fishing sentiment continues. The latest price of Australian ore is $760, with a large rebound from the low level. The short - term trading strategy is to buy on dips [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures have slightly increased. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon has remained stable at 10,100 yuan/ton, and the SMM weekly social inventory has continued to decrease by 12,000 tons. However, the current fundamental factors have become secondary, and the "anti - involution" logic is the main driving force. After the price rebound, there are some differences in the market sentiment, and there are many policy - related news disturbances. It is expected that the industrial silicon price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to position control [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon has risen and then fallen, with a slight decline. In the spot market, the price of N - type re -投料 has increased by 500 yuan/ton to 46,500 yuan/ton. Driven by the industry response, the upward trend of the spot price may not end. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 240 lots yesterday, and there is an expectation of further increase. High prices are also likely to trigger changes in trading rules. Without greater - scale capacity policies, the price trend may change from a sharp and rapid increase to a slow increase, but the policy uncertainty is large. Short - selling is not recommended. If following the current trend, pay attention to the risk of the price rising and then falling back during the day, and control the position well [11]