Guoxin Securities·2025-07-25 13:17Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][4]. Core Viewpoints - The insurance industry is expected to experience short-term premium income growth, reduced interest spread risk, and improved investment return expectations due to multiple catalysts, including a rebound in market risk appetite [2][16]. - The recent adjustment of the predetermined interest rates for life insurance products is anticipated to initiate a new round of "buying before suspension," benefiting the rapid increase in premiums, particularly for dividend insurance [12][16]. - The dynamic adjustment of predetermined interest rates will significantly optimize the pricing rate regulatory mechanism for life insurance products, enhance the efficiency of rate adjustments, and reduce the rigid liability costs for insurance companies [2][16]. Summary by Sections Predetermined Interest Rate Adjustment - The current research value for the predetermined interest rate in the life insurance sector is 1.99%, leading to the first adjustment of the predetermined interest rates this year [2][7]. - The maximum predetermined interest rates for various insurance products have been adjusted: ordinary products to 2.0% (down 50 basis points), dividend insurance to 1.75% (down 25 basis points), and universal insurance to 1.0% (down 50 basis points) [8][11]. Market Conditions and Expectations - The long-end interest rates have recently rebounded, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing from 1.84% to 1.93%, which is expected to narrow the interest spread risk and support the valuation of insurance stocks [15][16]. - The anticipated further reduction in predetermined interest rates in the third quarter is expected to enhance the profitability of insurance companies, particularly in the context of improved equity market performance [15][16]. Competitive Landscape - Dividend insurance is expected to maintain strong competitiveness due to its "guaranteed + floating" yield characteristics, which provide a significant development potential in the current environment of declining returns on wealth management tools [13][16]. - The adjustment in predetermined interest rates is likely to lead to a sustained expansion of premium income, particularly for dividend insurance, as the market reacts to the new pricing dynamics [12][16].