UTour (SZ:002707) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-07-25 13:18Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the outbound group travel industry, with ongoing business recovery and an expanding layout [3][14]. - The domestic and outbound/inbound tourism industries are experiencing steady growth, with significant recovery following unconventional cycles [10][34]. - The company benefits from a robust supply chain, strong cash reserves, and a comprehensive online and offline channel strategy [3][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The outbound tourism penetration rate in China has been increasing, reaching 11.0% in 2019, but still lags behind developed countries like the US and South Korea [2]. - The outbound tourism market is characterized by a predominance of young, highly educated travelers who prefer personalized and customized experiences [2][10]. - The inbound tourism sector is supported by favorable policies and increased payment facilitation measures, enhancing the willingness of foreign tourists to visit China [1][10]. Company Positioning - The company operates in the midstream of the outbound tourism industry, primarily benefiting from industry growth and its leading market position [2][10]. - The company has maintained its core team and supply chain, enabling a swift recovery post-pandemic [3][10]. - The company has a strong brand value and resource integration capability, with plans to expand its retail business through a franchise model [3][10]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of CNY 75.00 billion, CNY 87.35 billion, and CNY 103.39 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][8]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of CNY 1.16 billion, CNY 1.55 billion, and CNY 1.94 billion for the same years, reflecting a strong recovery trajectory [3][8]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 67.2X, 50.4X, and 40.2X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [3][8].