产业经济周报：“反内卷”重塑产业格局，扩内需动力渐显-20250725

Macro Insights - The "anti-involution" trend is reshaping industrial dynamics, with potential price recoveries in high-end manufacturing sectors[2] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project (Yaxia Project) has a total investment of CNY 1.2 trillion, approximately 5.8 times the Three Gorges Project's investment[19] - The Shanghai Composite Index has historically shown a positive trend after surpassing 3600 points, with average one-month gains of 12.6%, 17.7%, and 3.5% in previous instances[23] Domestic Demand - The Yaxia Project's investment is expected to contribute positively to domestic demand, with an estimated annual input of CNY 800 billion, accounting for 0.32% of the projected CNY 24.86 trillion infrastructure investment in 2024[19] - The project is anticipated to boost equipment procurement and construction output in related industries, with long-term benefits in clean energy and smart shipping[20] Consumer Sector - In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached CNY 42,287 billion, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 6.4% in May[36] - Restaurant revenue growth slowed significantly to 0.9%, marking the lowest monthly growth rate in 2023, influenced by stricter spending regulations[36] High-End Manufacturing - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing slight price increases due to supply-side reforms, with potential for further price growth in the future[2] - The excavator sector is showing signs of mild recovery, although overall demand remains subdued due to low downstream industry activity[2] Risks - Potential risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, competitive market pressures, and slower-than-expected product innovation[2]