国投期货贵金属日报-20250725

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is mainly in a wide - range oscillation. The probability of unexpected confrontation is decreasing, but market uncertainties still exist. Silver has a significant advantage over gold during the stage when domestic and foreign risk preferences are opened and is currently in an upward trend. Attention should be paid to whether the change in photovoltaic expectations affects the improvement of the term structure of silver demand expectations [2]. - The global trade situation shows signs of easing, which is one of the main reasons for the pressure on gold prices. The trade agreements between the US and other countries boost market risk preferences and reduce the attractiveness of gold as a safe - haven asset [2]. - The robust performance of US economic data is another factor driving down gold prices. Strong economic data support the Fed to maintain the current interest rate level, and push up the US dollar index and US Treasury yields [3]. 3. Summary by Related Information Impact of Trade Situation on Precious Metals - The US has reached or is expected to reach trade agreements with multiple countries. The trade agreement between the US and Japan reduces the automobile import tariff to 15% and exempts some goods from punitive tariffs. The US - EU trade negotiation also shows positive progress, with an expected 15% benchmark tariff, lower than the previously threatened 30% level. These reduce investors' concerns about economic turmoil and weaken the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset [2]. Impact of Economic Data on Precious Metals - As of the week of July 19, the US initial jobless claims decreased by 4,000 to 217,000, the lowest in three months, far lower than the expected 226,000, indicating a stable labor market. The US composite PMI in July rose from 52.9 in June to 54.6, and the service PMI climbed to 55.2, reflecting accelerated economic expansion. These data support the Fed to maintain the current interest rate level and push up the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, leading to a decline in gold prices [2][3].