6月财政数据点评：财政前置之后

Fiscal Performance - General fiscal expenditure growth reached 8.9% in the first half of 2025, approaching the budget target of 9.3%[2] - Total public budget revenue was 11.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 0.3%[5] - Total public budget expenditure was 14.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[5] Revenue Insights - Tax revenue showed positive year-on-year growth for three consecutive months, while non-tax revenue declined[6] - Specific tax growth rates included: VAT at 2.8%, consumption tax at 1.7%, personal income tax at 8%, and property tax at 12%[6] - Export tax rebates amounted to 1.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 132.2 billion yuan compared to the previous year[6] Expenditure Trends - First account expenditure growth slowed, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.3% in June 2025[6] - Key areas such as social security and technology saw expenditure growth exceeding 9%[6] - Infrastructure spending experienced a year-on-year decline[6] Fund Revenue Improvement - Special government bonds and improved land sale revenues contributed to a significant recovery in government fund revenues, with a year-on-year increase of 20.3% in June[6] - Land sale revenue turned positive with a year-on-year growth of 21.6%[6] Future Outlook - The government is expected to adopt a more proactive fiscal stance, but there may be downward pressure on fiscal spending in the second half of 2025[6] - Net financing of government bonds in the first half of 2025 was nearly 8 trillion yuan, expected to decrease by 1.4 trillion yuan in the second half[6]